Train wreck: Daniel Ives drops Tesla from 'best ideas' list, slashes target $50

"Musk has managed to do what the bears have unsuccessfully tried for years... crush Tesla's stock."

From a note to Wedbush clients that landed on my desktop Thursday:

In what has been a dark comedy show with Twitter, Musk has essentially tarnished the Tesla story/stock and is starting to potentially impact the Tesla brand with this ongoing Twitter train wreck disaster. From selling Tesla stock again and again, to the PR nightmare that Twitter has become, cutting 50% of employees and then needing to bring some back, Musk's attention focus from Tesla to Twitter, and ultimately the fear that this Twitter lightening rod of controversy on a daily (almost hourly) basis starts to negatively change the Tesla brand globally.

Tesla is Musk. Elon Musk has become the richest person in the world because of Tesla. Tesla is the golden child of his empire and has transformed the auto world over the past decade similar down the path of Apple's iPhone global impact. Love him or hate him it was hard to deny Musk's grit and strategic vision around the Tesla story which again and again were massively successful over the years despite enormous challenges. From the white knuckle factory tent days to financial difficulty and a myriad of challenges that looks almost impossible at the time...but Musk got Tesla through the storms. And now sitting on top of the peak of the mountain with Tesla in a massive position of strength Musk has managed to do what the bears have unsuccessfully tried for years...crush Tesla's stock by his own doing in what we view as a purely painful dark situation.

Maintains Outperform rating on Tesla, cuts target to $250 from $300. 

My take: Rare to see the congenitally bullish Ives -- who often compares Musk's Tesla car to Apple's iPhone -- in such a dark mood.

9 Comments

  1. Horace Dediu said:
    The assumption that there is value in Tesla is wrong and brings into question the judgement of the analyst.

    7
    November 10, 2022
    • Rodney Avilla said:
      “The assumption that there is value in Tesla is wrong and brings into question the judgement”

      I am hoping you meant to say “the assumption that there is value in Tesla may be wrong, and if so, would bring into question the judgement of the analyst.” To declare there is no value in Tesla would be a little presumptuous, and thus would be shaky ground to pass judgement on. Perhaps you were saying there is not more value to be found than what is there now, so not a good future investment?
      Disclaimer: I drive a Tesla, but do not own Tesla stock, and not a Musk fan. And I only follow Ives when he’s talking about aapl.

      0
      November 10, 2022
  2. Fred Stein said:
    $250 is bullish compared to TSLA at $177 today. At $250 it would be nearly 50x forward EPS.

    1
    November 10, 2022
  3. David Emery said:
    I look at that photo and weep. That’s my era in model railroading. 🙁 The locomotive on top is probably 1870s vintage. The others look more like 1880s, but judging by the clothing, I’m guessing the picture was taken 1890s or maybe even early 1900s. The loco on top was probably assigned as a helper engine for a heavy freight train.

    (Back to Apple….)

    3
    November 10, 2022
    • Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
      I’m sure there’s some IPMS dioramist who has replicated this scene for scale model competition.

      1
      November 10, 2022
  4. Apple’s P/E is 22. Tesla has a 55 P/E ratio. However this morning’s trading may portend a small rally. Traders are reading tea leaves after October’s declining CPI inflation reading. Apple’s up $5/share in overtime.

    1
    November 10, 2022
  5. Neal Guttenberg said:
    I am just glad he never became the CEO of Apple like some on Wall Street entertained.

    2
    November 10, 2022
  6. When TSLA’s share price reaches a deeper bottom Daimler or VW will end up buying controlling interest, the new board will sack Elon as quickly as he made Twitter management redundant. There are multiple reasons Musk got massive subsidies to build a Tesla gigafactory in Grünheide, Brandenburg, Germany.

    1
    November 10, 2022

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