"It's not easy to build up manufacturing in India if you don't have component makers nearby." -- Counterpoint's Ivan Lam
From Nik Martin's "Can India relieve Apple's iPhone woes in China?" posted Wednesday by Deutsche Welle:
Apple's production shift to India — and to a lesser extent Vietnam — may be easier said than done due to the huge logistics networks that support the China facilities, Ivan Lam, senior analyst at the Hong Kong-based Counterpoint Research, told DW.
"These supply chains are not only built on manufacturers but also component suppliers. It's not easy to build up manufacturing in India if you don't have component makers nearby. Foxconn will still need to ship components to India, so it may not be worth it in terms of scale."
Lam said it would also take time for India to build up the same expertise in producing advanced models like the iPhone. Foxconn has a trained workforce in China in the millions rather than tens of thousands in India and has made huge investments in upgrading its China facilities, he added.
Despite the current headwinds, Bank of America Apple analyst Wamsi Mohan doesn't expect a "rapid decoupling" from China.
"Given Apple remains a major employer indirectly in China and has close ties across city, province and central government levels, we expect Apple to continue to navigate the US-China cross currents as they have done exceedingly well over the past several years," he told DW.
My take: The view from German public media.