Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple orders more iPhone 14 Pros

"Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models."

Posted Monday on Kuo's Twitter feed:

(1/5) Due to strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models, which will help improve Apple's product mix/iPhone ASP in 4Q22.

(2/5) Based on the production line conversion rate, it's equivalent to an increase in the shipment forecast of iPhone 14 Pro models in 4Q22 by about 10%. Only a few component suppliers' order changes currently reflect Hon Hai's production line conversion (e.g., Samsung Display).

(3/5) I expect that most of the suppliers should also receive order increase requests for iPhone 14 Pro models from Apple in the next few weeks.

My take: This suggests that Apple miscalculated and was surprised by the level of preorders.

9 Comments

  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    I suspect Apple indeed miscalculated on the consumer demand for the iPhone 14 Pros. I also suspect Apple may have underestimated the demand of its new Apple Watch Ultra edition.

    Neil Cybart’s denoted his sales distribution relative to the Watch, saying “…. In terms of my sales expectations for the three Apple Watch collections, here is where the percentages stand:

    Series 8 (starting at $399): 60%
    SE ($249): 30%
    Ultra ($799): 10%”

    I disagree with Cybart’s distribution. I see a portion of Series 8 users of the stainless steel moving over to the Ultra line-up. Not so much the $399 buyers as much as the stainless steel buyers already accustomed to shelling out $749 for the stainless steel version.

    The Ultra may surprise us as a “sleeper” product that will become in consumer demand. The sports enthusiasts will want and need the Ultra to fulfill their physical demands & goals. The rest who purchase the Ultra will want (and perhaps need) the aspirational attraction of being grouped with the adventurous elite.

    The Ultra is one fine device. I may purchase one, but I want to examine it first. I prefer the classy “look” of the stainless versions more than the larger triathlete Ultra. Apple may have compelled me to go with both the Ultra and Stainless Steel. I wonder how many others may be relegated down this ambivalent path. 🙂

    In summary, I believe the Apple Watch Ultra edition will surprise us by its consumer embrace, same as the iPhone 14 Pros.

    8
    September 20, 2022
    • Steven Philips said:
      One on each wrist and your head on a swivel ! 🙂

      3
      September 20, 2022
    • George Ewonus said:
      Do agree, Jerry. Been waiting for Apple to bring out an Ultra for a while. As a serious “ultra” mountain biker, often in the back country, off the grid, I finally have the Apple device I need (along with the phone). I can now ditch my bulky Garmin InReach and the pesky satellite subscriptions and just wear my watch. Thank you, Apple – lookout Garmin and others.

      2
      September 20, 2022
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Now we know. Apple could have raised prices.

    As an investor, I’m fine with their decisions.

    And supporting Jerry’s points, the extra price of either the Pro or the Ultra models is about a cappuccino a month amortized over 3 years.

    2
    September 20, 2022
  3. Fred Stein said:
    This also says that Apple has all the components it needs to build the Pros.

    End that debate.

    4
    September 20, 2022
  4. Dan Scropos said:
    The Samsung Z Fold 4 obviously didn’t dent sales. Starting at $899, it just pushed more fence sitters toward the iPhone 14 Pro series. THAT is why I suspect Apple didn’t raise prices. If so, it seems to have worked.

    2
    September 20, 2022
  5. « my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models » Kuo may have an inside scoop but he too often sounds like he’s crowdsourcing consensus.
    Back order dates alone would tell us Apple is experiencing greater demand for Pro and Ultra, likely worldwide. No amount of Hon Hai assembly lines can meet initial post-release demand, until we get closer to the Western holiday season and citywide & regional shutdowns cease. Sounds like a cautious plan.
    That Apple might request Pegatron/Foxconn/Wistron switch model lines is a good guess. I know a new iPhone 14 line is ramping up near Chennai, India.
    The market holding Apple up over 1.5% today, while most Big Tech gets hammered, that’s amore!

    2
    September 20, 2022

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