Apple’s going to have a tough time closing above $160 today

Above: Open interest in Apple options expiring Friday, with a mountain of calls at $160 (courtesy of maximum-pain.com).

Below: The volume chart…

My take: I hear Apple is a bit of a meme stock today. To get past $160 the Reddit crowd is going to have to go through whomever — or whatever — wrote those $160 calls. Getting out the popcorn.

37 Comments

  1. Tommo_UK said:
    “ To get past $160 the Reddit crowd is going to have to go through whomever — or whatever — wrote those $160 calls.”

    … anyone seen The London Whale recently? 🙂

    1
    November 19, 2021
    • Kirk DeBernardi said:
      Off topic —

      Interesting thing.

      Just received my iPhone 13 Pro. Plan on firing it up tonight.

      However, I spent the last two days and quite a few hours deleting apps that I’ve carried over for years. I knew this was a task that would have to be tackled someday and I dreaded having to do it. We’ll…that day has come.

      Being retired, I’m trying to clean up a lot of old cruft and nasty bits that just take up space and fudge mental clarity in my life.

      What dawned on me after doing this though is that Apple has iterated and tinkered so much with a lot of their in-system apps that I’ve been able to delete quite a few apps that did things that at one time Apple‘s apps did not do. All along they have added and fine-tuned features in their apps that make using the iPhone so much easier and complete and many of these features hold hands with other Apple apps. A wonderful medley feature of the walled-garden.

      Gone are the weather • notes • timers • PDF makers • photo • camera • measurement • navigation • reminders • health • translation • home automation apps (to name a few) — and I could go on.

      This is deftly called “Creating Stick” and Apple knows it — and is very good at hitting the right buttons with it.

      To me, it’s a strength for the company across the board that’s right up there with growing user base and fostering steady stock appreciation based on endorsing solid fundamentals.

      So…

      “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”
      — The Great and Powerful Wizard of Oz

      3
      November 19, 2021
    • Robert Stack said:
      @Tommo: Only on this site that is ostensibly about Apple does the conversation range from Country Joe to the London Whale and everything in between…

      0
      November 19, 2021
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Slightly OT:

    Next bag of popcorn to be consumed watching the average EPS for FY 2022 move up from its current $5.75 to above $6 (yahoo finance). And watch analysts raise their PTs.

    As analysts raise their outlooks, investors and traders feel comfortable raising the price of AAPL.

    1
    November 19, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Fred: Few analysts (and we know them) are willing to follow their convictions and publish more bullish price targets and eps estimates ahead of management providing more definitive guidance. I’ll be a bit patient for the next two months on forecast changes from the Street until the release of December quarter results and March quarter guidance.

      3
      November 19, 2021
      • David Emery said:
        If “ANALysts won’t get ahead of management,” what exactly -is the value proposition – for ANALysts, vice just following AAPL’s own guidance?

        The failure of the ANALyst community at large to demonstrate any ability to accurately predict Apple’s results is a major indictment on that industry.

        1
        November 19, 2021
        • Robert Paul Leitao said:
          David: The professional risks for the analyst and the firm of being overly optimistic or overly bullish on quarterly forecasts are far greater than the risks of being conservative in one’s forecasts especially in the absence of more definitive guidance from management.

          1
          November 19, 2021
          • Bart Yee said:
            You mean like the finger wag I got going from first to last in the last two smackdowns? Figuratively speaking for a pro, a high missed estimate would jump out as a huge miss while a too low estimate means a surprise the professional analysts just didn’t anticipate.

            For the pros, it seems If you’re going to be wrong, it’s better to be wrong with the whole pack.

            3
            November 19, 2021
  3. Hugh Lovell said:
    It was nice to see a close well above $150 yesterday. AAPL had been dancing around that number for months.

    3
    November 19, 2021
    • Kirk DeBernardi said:
      @ Hugh Lovell —

      I’ve commented quite a few times here on Apple 3.0 about HOPEFULLY never seeing the backside of 150 ever again and, woefully, have been wrong.

      Feeling a bit luckier now. Looking forward to saying the same about 160…soon.

      170 anyone?

      5
      November 19, 2021
  4. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    At least it breached 160 intraday.
    Whale of a time!

    3
    November 19, 2021
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    I don’t care about this week. Yesterday I sold NOV 26 $157.50s at 77¢. These will call away my DEC 17 $150 Calls for which I paid an average $3.60. It’ll be a very nice payday. Calendar Spreads.

    2
    November 19, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Gregg: As someone who has never played options and someone who never plans to play options, I’m just curious as to why you consider options strategies more profitable and fruitful than simply owning shares of Apple. In other words, why don’t you buy shares and allow Apple’s success to fill your coffers?

      2
      November 19, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        I’m just curious as to why you consider options strategies more profitable and fruitful than simply owning shares of Apple. In other words, why don’t you buy shares and allow Apple’s success to fill your coffers?

        You could argue that I was trapped by my circumstances. After filing bankruptcy at age 58 (2004) I had to find a way to support myself and simultaneously prepare me for retirement. Shortly after the bankruptcy I got divorced, wherein I willingly gave everything (including retirement accounts holding shares of AAPL) except personal property to my ex. After considering employment and investment (only had about $500) opportunities, and at the suggestion of a friend, I tried AAPL options with a brand new OptionsXpress account (funded with $500). During 2004 and 2005 I fed the account, then in 2006 I made a $13,000 profit. Then I hit the big one in 2007 ($5,000,000) and I was hooked. It was at this time I decided to retire. Between taxes and the bank meltdown in 2008 my account shrank demonstrably. Nevertheless, paying cash along the way (bankruptcy credit rating) I bought a National Historic Register house, all its furnishings (exclusively antiques) and spent $250,000 fixing a hundred years of inappropriate “upgrades”.

        Having tasted the power of options leveraging, any appeal in investing directly in shares disappeared, ex., AAPL appreciates, on average, about 30% per year since 2011. I do far better than that with options. I favored Call Spreads and started trading Calendar Spreads last October.

        An appetite for expensive pre-WWII luxury cars has driven the need for greater returns. At one time I owned 27. Been doing it ever since, with ups and downs. Overtime I have honed my skills and suffered through idiot Presidency’s and other natural and unnatural calamities, but my wealth accumulation continues. I used to have a corporate and ROTH trading accounts (its fun sticking it to the man). I no longer trade in my corporate account.

        3
        November 19, 2021
        • Robert Paul Leitao said:
          Gregg: Thank you for the response. From what I read from your comment, options fit nicely with your lifestyle and level of risk tolerance (you’ve been through a lot!). It’s not my approach to gradually and methodically building positions. I still have dependents and prefer a different approach. Perhaps it’s boring, but it meets my needs. Thank you for sharing.

          1
          November 19, 2021
        • Greg Lippert said:
          Gregg I hold AAPL and trade options and it has more or less morphed into my job.

          I mostly sell naked puts but dabble in buying and selling calls. Selling puts works 90% of the time and even when it doesn’t I kick the can – which does work. And, if it ever gets put to me the share appreciation turns the trade into a winner.

          However outside of one home run, I have been far less successful with buying/selling calls. I seem to always be on the wrong side leading to calls that expire worthless or shares that get called away causing large losses of unrealized gains.

          I’d love to figure out how to get more successful on the call side and add to my mix. Appreciate any insights.

          0
          November 19, 2021
        • Kirk DeBernardi said:
          @ Gregg Thurman —

          Thanks for sharing your “rise from the ashes” story from what must’ve been an emotional roller-coaster episode in your life’s chapters.

          I too have a roller coaster story to tell, yet I sit satisfied being a Hold&Long kinda guy with never having ventured into options.

          As a matter-of-fact, I have a brain-vacuum void in even trying to understand and embrace it. I view this as a comfy default protection for me against what would probably be a pile of trouble.

          It takes a lot of confidence and self-clarity to “open the kimono” as you have and your Apple 3.0 brethren are all the better for it.

          Salute.

          1
          November 19, 2021
          • Kirk DeBernardi said:
            “Brethren”.

            (Sorry ladies — but you know what I mean — 😉 )

            0
            November 19, 2021
  6. Bart Yee said:
    Well, at 3:57, AAPL popped earlier to just over $161 and came back to $160.35 or so and has found a bit of support at that level. We’ll see if it holds through to the close.

    0
    November 19, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      At the close, AAPL hits new all time closing high of $160.55. Gonna be some ouch for a few out there. The popcorn sure was good!

      When is the next options expiration date?

      0
      November 19, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      $160.55 at the close and into the history books!

      1
      November 19, 2021
  7. Bart Yee said:
    Dow and S&P drop in choppy session, NASDAQ up today on tech strength.

    Are we beginning to see sector rotations like out of energy (Exxon Mobil and CVX down today) back to Apple?

    0
    November 19, 2021
  8. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    160. I love it.
    I looked at the 1month chart.
    Stairway To Heaven.

    And thank you, Gregg, for sharing a lot.

    0
    November 19, 2021
  9. John Konopka said:
    Just wondering.

    Kramer spoke about how when they needed to Apple to go down a bit they would leak a story about weak iPhone sales.

    Here on the Friday when a slew of options are written for $160 we see a story run in Bloomberg about the Apple Car (which won’t appear for years, if ever) and it is just enough to push Apple over $160. Curious timing. If I was of a suspicious nature …

    0
    November 19, 2021

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