Katy Huberty: What WWDC 21 means for Apple investors

“While WWDC hasn’t historically been a major stock catalyst, it’s become a more significant catalyst in recent years.”

From a note to Morgan Stanley clients that landed on my desktop Friday:

Over the last 10 years, Apple has underperformed the S&P 500 by a median of 120bps and 110bps in the 1 and 2 weeks following the event, and outperformed the S&P 500 by 70bps in the 1 month following WWDC (Exhibit 1).

However, in the last 2 years, Apple’s stock performance following WWDC has been more pronounced, outperforming the S&P 500 by 440bps in the 1 week following, 600bps in the month following, and 13 points in the 3 months following WWDC, indicating that Apple’s summer developer conference has become a more important stock catalyst than in prior years (Exhibit 2).

While we expect the majority of software/operating system upgrades to be more evolutionary than last year, we do believe Apple will highlight efforts to broaden the use of in-house designed silicon, and potentially launch a new MacBook with the Apple silicon, making this year’s WWDC a potentially more significant catalyst than years past.

Maintains Overweight rating and $161 price target. 

Cue Exhibits 1 and 2:

apple huberty wwdc21 investors

apple huberty wwdc21 investors

My take: I’m saving Exhibit 3 for future reference…

apple huberty wwdc21 investors

Click to enlarge.

4 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    Chart #2 is my huckleberry.

    1
    June 4, 2021
    • David Drinkwater said:
      Indeed. I wish there were more time between WWDC and 30 June (fiscal year-end for academic charitable beneficiaries).

      0
      June 5, 2021
  2. This year’s positive developer response to WWDC will not go unnoticed by Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers. The intent of WWDC runs counter to multiple arguments made by Epic.

    2
    June 4, 2021
  3. Jerry Doyle said:
    “Size of Developer community: 23M registered – WWDC 2020 Preview (5/5/2020)”

    And so based on a survey of Developers that Judge Gonzales Rogers says taken from a source document she couldn’t find, 8,970,000 of these Developers are dissatisfied with Apple’s distribution service. I do hope the good judge adduce her sources better in arriving at a final judgement than she adduced at arriving at Developers’ dissatisfaction with Apple’s distribution service.

    5
    June 4, 2021

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