From Lance Ulanoff’s “Apple Car Rumors Exhaust Me” posted Tuesday on Medium:
Project Titan is an apt name for an illusory effort to build transportation vaporware. The idea of Apple building or branding its own car full of Apple-engineered goodness is so big and exciting, it’s taken on gargantuan proportions.
I didn’t buy the idea five years ago. I’m not buying it now.
It’s such an attractive idea, though, “Oh can you imagine Apple versus Tesla?!!” that tech media and those who follow it literally try to will it into existence.
Reuter’s latest story may be the first to put a date on delivery of the Apple Car (or iCar, which is just too close to “iCarly”), and adds tantalizing details like a remarkable “monocell” battery and that Apple will probably let someone else build the vehicle. It also notes that the Apple Car might feature LiDAR scanners, which isn’t much of a stretch since virtually all semi-autonomous vehicles have sensors to detect the road, lanes, other vehicles, and people.
Reuters hedges its bets, saying that the pandemic could push production out past 2025, which also means that they can ride the rumor for years. That is unless Apple pulls the plug on Project Titan.
My take: Ulanoff’s an old pro. You have to wait until the 12th paragraph for him to say “I could be wrong.”
Interesting, however, that you ran this story the same day you ran the opposite story: “WSJ: Apple car already baked into the stock price”
As I said there, how can the price for a non-existent car be baked in?
The above puts nearly all mainstream ICE manufacturers on equal ground.with today’s leader in EV sales – Tesla, because they have scale ability.
Tesla, because of its brand in the EV market will lead market share in higher end vehicles, making it possible to be a major player in mid-priced EVs.
Like you stated earlier, there is a very limited number of disrupters with the financial clout to disrupt.
The only one I can think of with a reasonable chance IS Apple, which means Detroit, Germany and Japan will sooner or later catch up with Tesla.
Apple disrupts by changing the technological paradigm. We’re only talking about changing the mode of powering a vehicle, and the limiting factor here, for a paradigm shift, is range and cost. All other elements of vehicles (of any kind) remain virtually the same.
When battery tech approaches the range of ICEs the war is over.
At least for aircraft, we know (a) who the certifying/approving authority is (FAA) and (b) the standards for development and verification (e.g. DO-178c, DO-248a) Now Boeing has demonstrated real problems with how they’ve executed that system recently along with FAA failings, but it’s still a very much more mature system than we have for autonomous vehicles.
(I told my friend-the-General, who has substantial experience in software development, verification and procurement, that establishing an agency for autonomous vehicle certification would be a great Retirement job for him 🙂 🙂 )
Two paragraphs caught my attention:
“You choose a car brand because of its reputation and the features they provide. Tesla built its brand and market position on the strength of all-electric features, luxury-like amenities, build quality, service, performance, and range. And it’s built a leading position in the electric car market through, for better or worse, the sheer determination of Elon Musk.” Some contradictions there.
“However, making a viable Apple Car business will take years. The decade-plus effort to win the hearts and minds of, primarily, Tesla fans will be arduous and frustrating. And by the time Apple finally ships its first “Apple Car,” it’ll be entering a much more crowded electric car market with far more affordable options from car companies with decades of traditional car sales experience.”
Uh, it’s taken 17 yrs & billions for Tesla to reach today. Apple is 5 years in, if they want to do this, seems to me give them 10 years at least.
Apple partners, acquires talent, uses leading tech from others, and learns, learns, learns. Apple integrates, iterates, innovates with long term goals in mind. People and critics continue to be iPhone counters, “Apple is only a hardware-computer-iPhone company”, short term 1-2 year viewers. That’s why they don’t run a company like Apple and Tim Cook, Jeff Williams, et. al. do.
As a Tesla owner for 2 yrs I have never met a Tesla owner that didn’t love their Tesla, although I’m sure they are out there. I can’t see myself ever buying an ICE car again. Until other companies can come up with rapid charging, they can’t compete in the same space. Dominant position? They already have one in the EV category. I don’t see anyone coming close in the near future. And, by the way, I am definitely not a Musk fan. I would love Apple to buy Tesla and send Musk on a one-way trip to the moon.
Just like Apple waited about 3-4 years longer than I expected to move at least a lower-end MacBook to ARM architecture, in hindsight waiting until their cheapest model, the basic MacBook Air, could totally roast intel-driven laptops costing 3x as much with a distinct roadmap to transition its entire computer line-up to M-chips was a smart move and absolutely flawlessly executed.
If you’re sick of hearing about Apple Car rumours, just think about how much expertise and innovation Apple is benefiting from by being on the leading edge of frontier-technology, consumer trends, and integrating them. The trickle down into their product line up of innovations from working the automotive sector and understanding consumer needs in a more holistic sense as a result along with gaining AR expertise too is invaluable.
Even if Titan remains a research test-bed, its value is likely incalculable in terms of the R&D benefits Apple can deploy elsewhere in its current and future products.
Look at the camera on the iPhone 12 and LiDAR sensors. Straight out of a futuristic sensor and AI analytical array an EV with autonomous capabilities would require.
IMO, Large to very large SUVs and full size pickups are an American idiosyncratic obsession fueled by testosterone, cheap oil / gasoline, inability for large occupants to fit in other vehicles, and certain real and specific use applications for maybe 40-60%. The rest are driven mostly empty of major cargo loads a majority of the time in urban areas particularly. However, cheap oil (under $60-70/bbl) is likely to persist for years w/oil producers coming back w/more supply to help their economies recover, OPEC or no.
Frankly, I’m surprised that oil companies with large stations footprints haven’t decided to install and offer EV charging. IMO, the cost is relatively cheap, and the real estate issues are already paid for.. Why they haven’t pushed to become energy companies (can’t control supply directly unless they sell a ton of natural gas) and disrupt themselves before someone else does.