Apple at $323.50: Look who’s underwater now

The analysts are split right down the middle. Half think Apple will be worth more in a year that it is now, half think it’ll be worth less.

Below: My full list of Apple price targets—now with gap between target and closing price—as accurate and up-to-date* as I can make it. Corrections appreciated.

apple analysts targets underwater 324

Click to enlarge. *I rely on TipRanks ($) for the estimates of an analyst who shall remain nameless (long story).

My take: How analysts can recommend that their clients buy stocks that they believe will be worth less in 12 months than they are now remains a mystery to me.

12 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    One year out? They are all underwater.

    3
    May 26, 2020
  2. Paul Brindze said:
    Why does Rod Hall still have a job?

    4
    May 26, 2020
  3. Jerry Doyle said:
    Toni Sacconaghi with “Bernstein” is returning to form. Wonder if CNBC will continue to trot out the “wonder boy” as a sage Apple analyst to advise viewers.

    4
    May 26, 2020
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Bought this morning May 29 $315/$317.5 Call Spreads at $1.76 (including fees). ROI with a Close above $317.50 is 41.02%.

    AAPL’s trading range today has been $324.24/$319.72. AAPL is currently trading at $320.46

    1
    May 26, 2020
    • Paul Brindze said:
      # Gregg

      I sold the weekly put spread 315-317.50 for 0.75. Underwater now, but I keep the .75 if it closes above 317.50. Did 20, so $1500 if above 317.50. Max risk $5000, so not equal to your 41%.

      1
      May 26, 2020
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        #Paul

        It doesn’t matter that your trade won’t yield my 41% (but it’s close). What matters is that you make a profit. Good trade.

        2
        May 26, 2020
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Well now, the formula I use to determine which Call Spread to purchase still indicates the $315/$317.50. But I paid a lot more than I had to, still after that unexpected dip AAPL has recovered to $318.70 and I’m profitable once again.

      My goal isn’t to be profitable today, its to be profitable at the Close on Friday. I expect the unexpected which is why I buy In-The-Money Call Spread contracts. On average since Nov 3, 2017, AAPL has gone up $2.88 from Monday’s intraday low to Friday’s Close. By buying In-The-Money and paying attention to the direction the wind is blowing I’m improving my success rate. For instance: during the period Feb 3 through May 1 I placed two trades. I lost on the first but was profitable on the second. Since May 1 I have placed two more trades (not counting today’s trade) and profited on both of those.

      Overal since Feb 3 I am down, but that is because I went defensive in the amount traded subsequent to that loss. After July 4 week I will get much more aggressive. Why July 4th week? Because for the last 10 years AAPL has risen an average 29% from that week to January earnings.

      1
      May 26, 2020
  5. Adam Foster said:
    Why is apple acting so weird today… it seems so manipulated sometimes.

    0
    May 26, 2020
    • Aaron Belich said:
      Someone’s closing their positions perhaps. They got whatever percentage they were looking to make and are moving on to the next investment idea. Or indexes doing their shuffles.

      Don’t try to make it make sense to you.

      There’s $90 million looking to buy and nearly $300 million looking to sell according to the orders that I’m seeing this morning.

      1
      May 26, 2020
  6. Paul Brindze said:
    Broader than AAPL. Looks to me like someone cycled out of tech.

    Maybe their theory is everyone’s going outside, so stay at home winners no longer winners?

    Will probably correct other way an time now.

    0
    May 26, 2020
  7. Aaron Belich said:
    @Philip you can’t show off the pros without also calling out your readers, many who are underwater as well now 😉 (myself included)

    The only difference is, we can’t revise our guesstimates to fit the daily chase of the stock price.

    0
    May 26, 2020

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