Analyst Krish Sankar expects four new iPhones in the December quarter, all 5G.
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:
June ’20 iPhone build estimate remain unchanged at 35M units (-5% Q/Q, -13% Y/Y) as the production supply chain has by and large recovered to normal output rates. However, downstream end demand visibility remains the biggest uncertainty at this time.
Our C2Q Apple sell-in shipment forecast is 30M units. We note that the latest generation of iPhones, including the recently launched 2nd generation iPhone SE, is expected to comprise ~77% of the overall C2Q build mix similar to C1Q. The preliminary outlook for C3Q builds is around 46M units (+31% Q/Q, -2% Y/Y) and compares to the prior low-40M view and our sell-in forecast of 40M. We think a 40M+ shipment in C3Q would be a positive for sentiment in AAPL shares.
Our field work suggests builds for the new iPhone SE will rise from 6M in C2Q to 8M in C3Q. We believe total SE builds for the year are tracking to 25M.
Our latest checks also suggest there will be four devices that will succeed the current three in the 11 family (11/Pro/Max) and all will support 5G wireless. We also anticipate the future iPhone ’12’ family of products will launch around C4Q20; a shift in the timing by a month or two is not material in the long term.
My take: In the long term, we’re all, you know, what Keynes said.