Cowen: Apple's iPhone builds back to normal, demand still uncertain

Analyst Krish Sankar expects four new iPhones in the December quarter, all 5G.

From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:

June '20 iPhone build estimate remain unchanged at 35M units (-5% Q/Q, -13% Y/Y) as the production supply chain has by and large recovered to normal output rates. However, downstream end demand visibility remains the biggest uncertainty at this time.

Our C2Q Apple sell-in shipment forecast is 30M units. We note that the latest generation of iPhones, including the recently launched 2nd generation iPhone SE, is expected to comprise ~77% of the overall C2Q build mix similar to C1Q. The preliminary outlook for C3Q builds is around 46M units (+31% Q/Q, -2% Y/Y) and compares to the prior low-40M view and our sell-in forecast of 40M. We think a 40M+ shipment in C3Q would be a positive for sentiment in AAPL shares.

Our field work suggests builds for the new iPhone SE will rise from 6M in C2Q to 8M in C3Q. We believe total SE builds for the year are tracking to 25M.

Our latest checks also suggest there will be four devices that will succeed the current three in the 11 family (11/Pro/Max) and all will support 5G wireless. We also anticipate the future iPhone '12' family of products will launch around C4Q20; a shift in the timing by a month or two is not material in the long term.

My take: In the long term, we're all, you know, what Keynes said.


  1. Fred Stein said:
    Slightly OT,

    According to Omdia, the iPhone 11 crushed it last Q, with 19.5M units. Far behind in second place (at $399 base) the Galaxy A51 sold 6.5M (about 1/3)

    Long term, Apple keeps winning. AAPL keeps hitting new highs.

    May 26, 2020
    • David Emery said:
      If it’s not a glitch, it’s a buying opportunity!!

      I saw something similar with a huge drop for Eversource, our local electrical utility. Not the kind of company that has big swings. A bit later, the after-hours prediction was back to “normal” and the stock opened fine (jumping at the open and slowly degrading over the day to just below its Friday close.)

      May 26, 2020
  2. David Baraff said:
    I checked with E*TRADE after hours account, where I would happily have bought more for $246 or so. I guess it was just a glitch, darn it!

    May 26, 2020
  3. Joe Murphy said:
    I noticed that reports that the share price dropped, 666 AAPL shares traded and the price immediately resumed it’s previous price, at 6:25pm for $246.0253 per share. How does that even happen?

    May 26, 2020

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