Look whose Apple price targets are underwater now

At $183.83, Apple’s share price Friday was ahead of where these eight analysts say it will be a year from now.

Among the big names advising clients to avoid Apple during its latest run: Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and AllianceBernstein.

underwater

Click to enlarge.

Below: My Apple price-target spreadsheet—as accurate and up-to-date as I can make it.* Corrections appreciated.

Click to enlarge.

*The market high estimate comes from an analyst who has asked not to be identified on this site. His name and most recent affiliation, however, are no secret. See, for example, here.

My take: Betting against the deep pockets of Warren Buffett and Tim Cook is a risky strategy, career-wise. As is leaning too far over of one’s skis. See

14 Comments

  1. Patrick Beyrouti said:

    How did KATY Huberty get to $200 with previously very bleak iPhone sales?
    Did she change her mind?

    0
    May 6, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      She’s down $3 from her February price target. Looks like she was trying to straddle a fence.

      0
      May 7, 2018
  2. Keith Hope said:

    The first chart of eight names, with Average of $195, seems odd. That short list has an average much lower than $195. Closer to $170, I suspect.

    For the longer full list, 195 may be accurate.

    0
    May 6, 2018
  3. Ken Cheng said:

    Some of these analyst firms I don’t recognize. For example, I’ve never heard of BW’s new firm, Monness. Sometimes, I wonder if we should weight all of these analyst firms equally.

    Then, I also noticed that of the recent target updates, Rosenblatt’s analyst, has a price target of $180, with a buy. He just updated his target a couple days ago, with a buy, when Apple was already trading between $175 and almost $178. Strange.

    0
    May 6, 2018
  4. Michael Thompson said:

    Those in Blue are to be mocked and laughed at. Most of those have been sadly bearish for years, however Mr. Market listens to them even though their opinions are meaningless and one should do the EXACT opposite.

    It is my opinion that our days of being stymied by corrupt analysts and corrupt firms are coming to an end. Apple will shortly achieve a market multiple and then finally a PREMIUM to the market.

    If not, the shares will disappear at a faster rate. That’s called winning or winning.

    0
    May 6, 2018
  5. Jonny Tilney said:

    Be nice to have alongside their targets from 12 months ago, or more. Then we could rate them by accuracy, not by the prestige of the firms name.

    0
    May 6, 2018
    • Ken Cheng said:

      (Hmmm…going to edit out the links, since my post is awaiting moderation. Tried everything, nothing works, my post needs moderation.)

      Yeah, that would be nice. Searching under “analysts”, I was able to find last year’s and the year before’s price targets:

      1 year ago:
      http://www.ped30.com/2017/05/06/best-worst-apple-target-prices/
      Apparently, Walter Piecyk of BTIG, nailed it, with a target of $184. Everyone else was lower.

      Interestingly, from 2 years ago:
      http://www.ped30.com/2016/05/10/apple-price-targets-latest/
      None other than Brian White of Drexel Hamilton back then, had a target of $185, and no one else was within $30 of him.

      2
      May 6, 2018
      • Fred Stein said:

        Very helpful thanks, Ken

        Simplistic calculations say the $235 target is reasonable. But the market will likely continue it’s norm of 10% discount (or more) to value. Arithmetic: Yahoo finance say $13.07 EPS for FY19 EPS. Factoring in the recent 2.8% shares bought back and future buy backs, we can divide by .91 and then multiple by 16 (PE ratio) and get to about a $231 share target for value.

        Where’s the homework done by the analysts with targets below $180?

        1
        May 6, 2018
      • Fred Stein said:

        Back again. Walter may nail it again. My simplistic arithmetic, including the 10% discount that the market applies to AAPL comes to $208 target. Yeah, it’s all silly.

        0
        May 6, 2018
      • David Emery said:

        Some graphs of this data might be entertaining.

        0
        May 7, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      I’ve been tracking 41 analyst and their targets for some time. Based on how often an analyst revises his/her target I’d say well over half (23) issue targets good for about 3 months. Only five have targets that are more than 9 months old.

      They are:
      Cleveland Research: $197
      Cowan and Associates $160
      Credit Suisse $175
      Longbow Research $192
      JP Morgan $176

      The worst of those I track are:
      Barclays
      Cowan and Company
      Deutsche Bank
      JP Morgan
      Goldman Sachs
      Mizuho Securities

      with an honorable mention to Wells Fargo

      1
      May 7, 2018
  6. Ken Cheng said:

    One more thought, looking at last year’s targets and the year before that, perhaps, the best guesser is Rob Cihra of Guggenheim. His target 2 years ago, was $145, and Apple was $149; and his target last year was $180, and Apple is now ~$184. Now, his target is $215, so I assume if he’s right and not just lucky, next year, the price will be ~$219 the first week in May. That’s only a 19% increase, so not totally out of the realm of possibility.

    1
    May 6, 2018
  7. Gregg Thurman said:

    Cihra’s target was issued on November 2 and reiterated May 2. I believe his target is for the fiscal year-end earnings report (November?).

    He is one of the good guys.

    1
    May 7, 2018

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