Apple’s iPhone X bungee jump

“If you can keep a good stock down, then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It’s like a slingshot — the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate.” —Jason Schwarz, Seven Reasons the Shorts Love Apple

iphone x bungee jump

In five weeks, supply chain leaks helped drive Apple’s share price down $19.40 (12%), shaving $143 billion off the company’s market cap.

In five days this week, the shares regained everything they had lost and more. The market cap, however, is still $18.5 billion shy. The difference: Buybacks that took a couple hundred million shares out of circulation.

Ironically, the original report that spread the doom and gloom over Wall Street—a January estimate by Ming-Chi Kuo, late of KGI Securities, that Apple would ship only 18 million iPhones X’s in calendar Q1—turned out to be irrelevant. From Strategy Analytics’ Apple iPhone X Becomes World’s Best-Selling Smartphone:

“We estimate the Apple iPhone X shipped 16.0 million units and captured 5 percent marketshare worldwide in Q1 2018. For the second quarter running, the iPhone X remains the world’s most popular smartphone model overall, due to a blend of good design, sophisticated camera, extensive apps, and widespread retail presence for the device.”

My take: Someone was watching the wrong supply chain metrics.

10 Comments

  1. David Drinkwater said:
    At the risk of repeating myself verbatim:

    Apple’s response to the analysts on supply chain rumors:

    “I suggest its good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans. Even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to interpret that data point as to what it meant to our business. The supply chain is very complex and we have multiple sources for things. Yields can vary, supplier performance can vary. There is an inordinate long list of things that can make any single data point not a great proxy for what is going on.”

    Perhaps for something a little bit more novel:

    “It’s the ecosystem, stupid!”

    3
    May 5, 2018
    • David Drinkwater said:
      Still love that Schwarz quotation, though. 🙂

      0
      May 5, 2018
    • Michael Thompson said:
      It is very possible that the Apple manipulation game is coming to an end. That is precisely why the paid off mouthpieces for the Criminal manipulators were so feverish in their Apple hatch jobs.

      Apple has more money than the manipulators and now with the help of 5% Apple owner Berkshire Hathaway, (it is very likely that Berkshire was a big buyer again in April, we’ll find out in August) the shares will become harder and harder to come by at these ridiculous low prices. Yes, yesterday’s all-time high is still a ridiculous low valuation for the world’s richest, best, most environmentally sound and the company with the cleanest books.

      2
      May 5, 2018
  2. Doug Montgomery said:
    Maybe its my tin foil hat talking, but could the 22 people bounced out of Apple been deliberately fed bad intel to flesh them out?

    Was that bogus info what drove the supply chain rumors?

    Interesting timing for the end the Ming rumor dynasty.

    I bet Apple is gunning for Gurman and that will be something to watch.

    1
    May 5, 2018
    • Gianfranco Pedron said:
      Interesting speculation, although I doubt that Apple’s legal team would sign off on anything that might be construed as attempted market manipulation by the SEC.

      Mark Gurman passed his “best before” date when he joined Bloomberg. I believe that as an Apple gossip columnist Mark is rapidly approaching his expiration date.

      1
      May 6, 2018
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        His will be a short lived career

        0
        May 7, 2018

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