Nearly 60% more than last year, according to these analysts.
Take this with a grain of salt, since nobody outside Apple really knows how many Watches the company sells each quarter. Tim Cook resolved early on—for competitive reasons, he says—to play those cards close to his chest.
That hasn’t stopped some of the braver analysts from making educated guesses.
I’ve heard from 16 so far this quarter—nine Wall Street professionals and eight independents. With estimates ranging from 1.8 million to 7.3 million, there isn’t what you would call a consensus. There is, however, a numerical average: about 3.8 million, nearly 60% more than last year.
Plotting the average estimates, this is what the last eight quarters look like:
Not seeing the bar chart? Try the website.
Below: The individual analysts estimates, pros in blue, indies in green.
Nobody expects Apple to release a unit sales number when it reports its quarterly results next Tuesday, Aug. 1. But the size of its “Other revenue” category, where the company buries Watch sales, may tell us something about who was closest to the mark. I’ll be monitoring the earnings call, and you can too. Click here.