But that pace may not be sustainable, says Rosenblatt Securities’ Jun Zhang, an Apple bear.
From a note to clients by that landed in my inbox Monday:
Strong Weekend Preorders
- Based on the 5-6 week wait time for an iPhone X, we estimate that there were 9-12 million iPhone X total preorders over the last three days due to iPhone X’s current production ramp schedule (Oct: 2.5M, Nov 5-6M, Dec 15-16M).
- We also believe total preorders in China reached 6.5M over the last three days (including some pre-registrations without payment).
While we continue to see strong iPhone X preorders, we have ongoing concerns regarding sustainability of this pace. We believe preorder volume declined quickly after the first day, which could be attributed to long wait times.
- In Asia,, we have observed smaller retailers that may have been using software to quickly preorder iPhone Xs with plans to resell into the end user market, which may have contributed to strong initial orders in China, including Hong Kong.
- Wait times have not extended after the first day, remaining at 5-6 weeks.
We will continue to monitor the production ramp into November and assess whether wait times extend or contract over the next few weeks.
Zhang maintains his Neutral rating on Apple and his near-Street low $150 price target.
My take: First I’ve heard of small retailers using software-driven preorders to grab iPhone Xs for resale in China and Hong Kong, but I wouldn’t put it past them.