Analyst: Apple’s iPhone X launch a ‘stellar success’

“This will be the defining launch for Cook & Co.,” says GBH analyst Daniel Ives.

From a note to clients that landed in my inbox Monday:

Tracking lead time and initial demand across the globe since Friday, we would characterize this first stage of the iPhone X release as a “stellar success” with current lead times still 5-6 weeks vs. our expectation of 4 weeks…

We now believe pre-order demand could be closer to 50 million units of iPhone X vs. our original estimate of 40 million, which is more than double the current supply of iPhone X out of Asia currently available for shipments over the coming months…

Based on our estimates, we do not see supply/demand balance reached until the April/May 2018 timeframe

This will be a defining product launch for Cook & Co. that we ultimately believe will be Apple’s biggest iPhone product cycle to date.

Ives maintains his Highly Attractive rating and valuation target of $190 to $200.

My take: A bullish note if I ever saw one. In the space of a week Ives has upped his preorder demand estimate 25% to 50 million and pushed iPhone X supply/demand balance up a month from April/May to May/June.

4 Comments

  1. John Kirk said:
    A couple of days ago, someone suggested that PED keep track of the accuracy of rumors. I’m far too lazy to do that myself, but I’ll bet that if I were so inclined, I could find 30 to 100 stories saying that the iPhone 8 and iPhone X sales were going to foreshadow a bad quarter and a bad year for Apple.

    Human beings really, really, like to be sure about things they know nothing about. The less we know, the more certain we are.

    3
    October 30, 2017
    • David Drinkwater said:
      I think there is another sad truth about human nature: many people will vehemently (or even in a seemingly sincere and truthful manner) lie about things that do not agree with or that directly threaten their narrow world views.

      These people are the same as FUDsters, but also somehow worse. Sociopathic, even.

      0
      October 30, 2017
      • John Butt said:
        I gotta assume you are talking about the US president LOL.

        Sorry, too good to miss now we have our new leader in NZ

        0
        October 30, 2017
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Not only is it a bullish note, if supply/demand equilibrium is pushed out to the April/May timeframe due to staggering demand levels, Apple will quickly walk down the cost curve of the iPhone X. This provides for above average gross margin on fast-rising revenue and paves the way for high volume production of the new form at lower costs per unit through FY2019.

    0
    October 31, 2017

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