From note to subscribers Friday morning by Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster:
IPHONE X LEAD TIMES SUGGEST STRONG DEMAND: This morning Apple began taking iPhone X pre-orders at 3am ET. Current lead times are 5-6 weeks, in line with our expectation of 4-6 week lead times by 8am this morning. Long lead times are attributed to production bottlenecks (screen and TrueDepth camera). Based on previous years, we expect little change in lead times over the next week. We expect lead times of 4-6 weeks for the month of November. We believe the iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium sometime in the March quarter, or 3-4 months after launch. Typically it takes 2-3 months for a new iPhone to reach global supply-demand equilibrium.
A night tracking long lead times. We checked iPhone X lead times 8 times since pre-orders began at 3am, outlined in the table below. The site actually went live at 3:04am, and by 3:17am, lead times had increased to 2-3 weeks, 3:38am 4-5 weeks, 5:19am 5-6 weeks, and has remained consistent since then.
Click to enlarge.