iPhone X preorders: 5.5 million in 5 hours in China alone, analyst

From a note to clients by Rosenblatt Securities’ Jun Zhang that landed in by inbox Monday:

  • We believe iPhone X preorders reached 5.5 million units within the first 5 hours in China, compared to 4 million units for the iPhone 8 in the first 3 days.
  • The wait time for an iPhone X in China is currently 5-6 weeks, similar to the iPhone 6 Plus in 2014. The iPhone X was sold out within 10 mins in China and sold out overall in 20 minutes.
  • We believe the grey 256GB model is the most popular model so far in China.
  • We will continue to track preorder volume and production data points.

Zhang maintains a Neutral rating and near-Street-low price target of $150.

My take: Zhang seems to have pretty good sources in China.

10 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:

    Two things.

    A fat finger error resulted in an incorrect ASP. It should read $703.70.

    Aslo, Katy Huberty’s (Morgan Stanley) survey efforts reflect iPhone mix at 20% iPhone X, 39% iPhone 8 and 41% all others. I used a modified (greater detail) version of Huberty’s results to come up with my ASP.

    0
    October 27, 2017
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      Dammit. Don’t try to do these comps while people are interrupting with stupid questions.

      When you make a single mistake it cascades down through to final conclusions.

      Average preorders are 9 Million.
      December quarter unit sales extrapolate to 16,500,000 IF production run rates do not improve. Based on this I’m forecasting 18,500,000 iPhones sold during December quarter. iPhone ASP ~$703.

      I’m now being shunned because I barked my displeasure about the interruptions. Of course a longer time for editing would have taken the pressure off and helped avoid the barking. : ). I need a drink.

      1
      October 27, 2017
      • David Drinkwater said:

        With today’s gains, champagne seems appropriate! 😉

        0
        October 27, 2017
  2. Gregg Thurman said:

    Philip, I’m embarrassed at how shoddy my work above was. Please remove all of them them from this thread.

    0
    October 27, 2017
  3. Gregg Thurman said:

    Hi Joseph. I will lock myself in the bathroom tomorrow and completely redo the math. I made a mistake almost at the beginning of my calculations, and the mistake propagated through to the end. When I discovered the error there wasn’t enough time to edit my post (4 minutes is way to short except for minor spelling errors)

    Oh, until this quarter I calculated unit sales by averaging growth rates (by quarter) of the prior three years. It’s close enough until we get guidance (after which I don’t care about unit sales) to extrapolate out for the fiscal year.

    Something else I’ve found: if you multiply 1st quarter revenue by 3.09 you’ll come very close to total FY revenue. 3.09 is the average, since FY2012, of FY revenue divided by FQ1 revenue. I use this tool as a sanity check of my other methodology.

    1
    October 28, 2017

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