Daniel Ives: 'Brisk sales' for iPhones out of the gate

"So far we are seeing overall demand tracking 8%-10% ahead of our expectations on the Pro front."

From a note to Wedbush clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:

With iPhone 14 officially hitting the shelves in Apple stores this past Friday, we are seeing "brisk sales" of iPhone Pro 14 units worldwide out of the gates. Wait times on many iPhone Pro 14 models are now 4-6 weeks for Apple customers and lengthening into November. We believe the iPhone Pro mix is up to 85%-90% vs. iPhone 13 Pro mix in the 60%-65% by this point in the cycle. Based on our recent checks out of Asia we are seeing a ramp in Pro production from Cupertino which is going to be a major ASP/revenue tailwind into 4Q/early 2023. So far we are seeing overall demand tracking 8%-10% ahead of our expectations on the Pro front.

While it's still early days in the cycle we could see some real supply issues heading into holidays if demand keeps up at this pace.

China sales look strong in particular through the various e-commerce channels and remains a key factor in the Apple growth story into 2023 and beyond as we estimate ~30% of Chinese iPhone consumers are in the window of an upgrade opportunity. The macro is clearly softening and the stock continues to be a "prove me" with multiple compression across the board with tech out of favor.

That said, we are very encouraged to see demand robust out of the gates for iPhone 14 as the Apple growth story remains a bright spot in the tech landscape with darker clouds abound in many pockets of consumer tech.

Maintains Outperform rating and $220 price target.

My take: His is more or less the consensus view.

6 Comments

  1. Michael Goldfeder said:
    I’m just waiting for the article from someone saying that iPhones aren’t selling as expected, since they should be 12 to 14% ahead of anticipated analysts projections. The iPhone 14 launch is not being received well during these current economic conditions as everyone is keeping their current iPhones thereby creating an elongated retention period.

    Blah, blah, blah.

    3
    September 20, 2022
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    @michael. You shouldn’t have to wait long. I can feel the usual suspects chomping at the bit to make their doom and gloom prognostications.

    2
    September 20, 2022
  3. Closed up 1.57% or $2.42 today. Three month returns just under 16%. Google is off nearly 9% while Bill Gates’ old shop lost 4% in the same period. Apple is starting an entirely new league.

    4
    September 20, 2022

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