Ming-Chi Kuo: Early iPhone 14 event to goose Apple's Q4

Posted Thursday on Kuo's Twitter feed:

(1/2) The iPhone 14 announcement/shipping date may be earlier than iPhone 13/12, which could be one of the reasons why Apple offered a positive outlook for 3Q22 from the last earnings call.

bloomberg.com:  Apple Targets Sept. 7 for iPhone 14 Launch in Flurry of New Devices
Apple Inc. is aiming to hold a launch event on Sept. 7 to unveil the iPhone 14 line, according to people with knowledge of the matter, rolling out the latest version of a product that generates more...

(2/2) The global recession risk is still growing and unpredictable, so announcing/shipping the iPhone as soon as possible may minimize the impact of recession risk on demand.

My take: This is Kuo's take on Gurman's Wednesday rumor. Is it credible that Apple would arrange the timing of an event in order to burnish a quarterly print? You bet.

12 Comments

  1. Randy McCleary said:
    So pondering some numbers. 220M iphones per/yr with 20% in the first 15 days. That is 44M phone upside at ~$800 per or $35B. Let’s say that ~10M watches sell with an average or $600. Kinda high but there are plenty of rumors for a Watch Pro so give me some room here. $6B from just watches plus $32B from iPhones is about $40B. There is about $104T GDP in the world right now so we’re saying 0.04% ability of APPL to move the global needle. OR are they going for available Christmas cash before anyone else with their SC prowess? -RJ

    2
    August 18, 2022
    • Randy McCleary said:
      I forgot to factor in daily GDP. So if there is $104T in global, annual GDP, that is $4T every two weeks. If we say that APPL sells $40B into the world economy in the same period, then they get to move the economic needle up 10%. Not the much smaller number above. Much more substantial looking at it in two week increments. -RJ

      2
      August 18, 2022
  2. Bart Yee said:
    IMO, they “could” but is iPhone 14 production moving along enough, is inventory going to ready by Friday of 3rd week (Sept. 23) or 4th week (Sept. 30) to fulfill orders?

    If iPad is less capacity constrained, will there be more / enough inventory? Same with Watch.

    And why move to Wednesday rather than traditional Tuesday?

    0
    August 18, 2022
  3. Jerry Doyle said:
    ASP in Accessories category should trot higher in ‘23 with the intro of the Watch’s Sport elite edition with its higher retail cost and massive new adrenaline pumping features. There will be consumers upgrading to this superior choice whether they need or will use the powerhouse lineaments. Many consumers simply will desire the elite edition on their wrist to connote association with health & wellness while shelling out more money to project that image to family, friends, relatives & strangers.

    0
    August 18, 2022
  4. Don Donofrio said:
    My impression has always been that Apple is racing to meet the shipping deadline. Some years they need the extra week to build inventory, or are forced into a two release dates for different models situation

    If that is true, then it would be the tail wagging the dog if the ship date was moved up to meet a quarterly target.

    0
    August 18, 2022
  5. Bart Yee said:
    Positives for move – less reliance on new maybe limited production A16 Bionic chip since only available on Pro models, no A15 chip capacity constraints on non-Pro models, iPads get A14 or 15. No Watch build constraints.
    Want to get one more selling week into Q4.

    Negative for move – continued iPhone 13 strength, why begin discounting them early? Perception for goosing Q4 quarter is unwarranted, no need to change what has worked, Apple can beat the comp without it. Have most staff at HQ for over a week to get back “vibe” of product launch and probably an all hands review of where Apple is headed and why it’s important to work in person – humanity of in person connection.

    Maybe most important – don’t give credence to any supposed information leaks. Now that someone was given a possible early release date, Apple knows who was given that possible misinformation and can track the leaker(s) down.

    0
    August 18, 2022
  6. Bart Yee said:
    Whichever way it falls, we will see invites sent out 7-10 days before the actual event. That means at earliest we see an invite by August 27-31 for Sept. 6 (Tuesday) or 7 (Wednesday) event. If those invite dates pass, then we know it’s more likely into traditional second Tuesday September 13 and invites go out on Sept. 6. This assumes no further delays for an even later event.

    Remember, end of Q4 and FY2022 is Sept. 24, 2022, so if normal Sept. 13 event, preorders begin Friday Sept. 16, availability begins Sept. 23. If Apple Event is one week earlier, add 1 week earlier pre-orders and an extra week of availability. All to goose the Q4 and overall FY2022, and maybe take back the premium segment headspace from Foldables (hardly)?

    I don’t buy it, my sense is business as usual, they already get an extra selling week in Q1 this year.

    0
    August 19, 2022
    • Chris De Armond said:
      How early in September was the product launch event the last time there was a 14 week December quarter?

      0
      August 19, 2022

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