Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final Spreadsheet FQ3 2022

Exclusive: The analysts (pros and indies) have placed their bets in advance of today’s June quarter results. The fun starts at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

First the summary (click to enlarge):

Below: The individual analysts’ estimates—as complete, accurate and up-to-date as I can make them — Wall Street professionals in blue, independents in green. Corrections appreciated, but the window closes at 12 p.m. Eastern.

apple final smackdown q32022

Tune in after the markets close today for Apple’s official results. I’ll be auditing the 5 p.m. Eastern call, and you can too. Here’s the webcast link. Subscribers are welcome to comment on the action in the Apple 3.0 Slack. (Don’t know about the Apple 3.0 Slack? E-mail ped@ped30.com with Slack in the subject line. Subscribers only, please.)

Come back here for my regular post-earnings analysis: Five Easy Charts, Best and Worst Apple Analysts and What the Analysts Are Saying.

20 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    I’ve noticed that the same thing is happening here on Apple 3.0, as it is at estimize.com: the number of estimators (guessers?) continues to decline.

    When I first starting posting my revenue/EPS estimates on estimize.com there some 1200 AAPL posters. For this earnings cycle it appears there will be less than 200.

    While the decline started a long time ago, it picked up speed during the pandemic lockdown.

    1
    July 28, 2022
    • David Emery said:
      Do you suppose some of the pros got tired of being wrong all the time? 🙂 🙂

      6
      July 28, 2022
    • John Konopka said:
      Thanks Gregg. That’s an interesting observation. Personally, I have become more of an observer than a participant. I used to sell puts from time to time. Now it seems that the market is so broadly bought and sold it is difficult to invest just on Apple’s activities. Like today, I look at the stocks app and on the left column almost all the stocks are showing roughly the same chart. I guess the algorithms are shifting around huge amounts of cash based on some sort of calculations. It makes it dangerous to invest just based on what Apple is doing.

      Apple has changed as well. A decade or so ago Apple was much reliant on the US market. With a feel for how things were going here you could try to guess how AAPL would perform. Now Apple is such a global firm I really wonder how people try to guess their performance.

      2
      July 28, 2022
    • Bart Yee said:
      Hi Gregg, thanks for reminding me, I put all 5 of my applicable PED estimates into estimize,, interesting that they don’t have Mac, iPad, Wearables, etc., just iPhone, Services, Gross Margin (and these garnered just 11-12 estimates so far), and EPS & Revenue now has 203 including me. Maybe there’ll be a bit of a rush before the earning are released.

      BTW, why aren’t your numbers submitted here, even if only EPS and Revenue? Although the deadline has now passed, I would encourage all subscribers to build up numbers and submit them, even if they are SWAG numbers. It’s a fun exercise and tunes you into the trends and challenges Apple deals with every quarter. Try you prognostication luck, likely you’ll beat some of the Pros too.

      0
      July 28, 2022
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        $85,300/$1.32

        Last quarter I scored 39 of 50 possible, one of my better estimates.

        0
        July 28, 2022
  2. Dan Scropos said:
    Loose loose loose numbers:

    $88.8B
    $1.39 eps

    0
    July 28, 2022
  3. Daniel Epstein said:
    Good Market response so far. Not a big beat compared to the pros Average. 1.20 earnings on 83.B in sales. Mac Revs were down. Has anyone mentioned Russia yet?

    0
    July 28, 2022
  4. Bart Yee said:
    Well, here it is:
    Revenue $83.0B, up 2% YoY.
    EPS $1.20/share

    Toni, Ives, Horace for Revenue
    Christopher McManus nails the EPS, Daniel and Toni/Ives next.

    iPhones $40.665B
    Mac $7.382B
    iPad $7.224B
    Wearables $8.084B
    Services $19.604
    Total sales $82.959 Net income $19.442B Gross Margin 43.25%

    3
    July 28, 2022
    • Alan Birnbaum said:
      YAY !!!!!

      Compared to their “peers” (Good/MSFT etc) – it was a homerun !!!!

      2
      July 28, 2022
    • Bart Yee said:
      I just realized my gross margin in the spreadsheet is a typo, I submitted 43.27% this morning, didn’t catch that till now.

      0
      July 28, 2022
  5. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    @PED Thank you. Yes. We are covering Apple’s June quarter results and the conference call in the Apple Quarterly Results and Earnings Call channel of the Apple 3.0 Slack group. Conversations are already in progress and the conference call commences in just a few minutes. The Apple 3.0 Slack group is open to all Apple 3.0 subscribers. Please contact Philip for more information.

    1
    July 28, 2022
  6. Bart Yee said:
    Nice move after hours, busting through $160 level, up $4.25 or 2.7% currently. I expect some see-saw action tomorrow as some investors will buy in on stable to decent guidance vs some investors selling to capture gains for current budgetary needs in an inflationary home environment, but I think overall positive tomorrow.

    If closes over $161 tomorrow, first time AAPL a breaks back above less than 10% down YTD in almost 2 months. Hopefully the trend will be positive if modestly upward through the year end.

    0
    July 28, 2022
  7. Rodney Avilla said:
    This morning I was gonna predict that Apple would close just above $157, and then pop just under 3% in after hours, but forgot to hit the send button. Better late than never.

    2
    July 28, 2022
    • Bart Yee said:
      Nice call. On July 20, I said this:
      ”AAPL has moved up smartly over the past month by 16.3% from $131.56 to today’s close of $153.04. It’s not unlikely that AAPL could push past $157-160 by earnings next Thursday.”

      Closed yesterday at $157.35, up past $162 same day after hours trading. Great minds think alike! 🙂

      0
      July 29, 2022

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