Where the quarter-size trackers stand on the adoption curve may determine when and if Apple releases a new generation.
From Kuo's Twitter feed:
AirTag, which has not received much attention, has gradually grown in shipments since its release. Shipment estimations of AirTag reach about 20 mn & 35 mn units in 2021 & 2022, respectively. If AirTag shipments continue to grow, I believe Apple will develop the 2nd generation.
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) June 19, 2022
My take: "Not received much attention"? Hasn't he been reading the tracking horror stories? Kuo's numbers, meanwhile, are in line with Gene Munster's, who estimated 25 million AirTags sold in 2021.
And that my Toyota Tacoma AirTag tells me it’s still safely at Park’n’Zoom at Austin-Bergstrom airport when we were at a wedding in Butler, PA.
Apple has long been a punching bag for poorly informed journalists, bloggers and others still struggling with serious privacy flaws in Windows & Android operating systems. For years anyone speaking positive about Apple products were derisively spoken of as ‘fanboys.’ This done while major firms equipped their high-paid creative departments & scientists with Macs, students completed countless college degrees using Macs and the hardware functioned years after Windows laptops & desktops blew up.
I suspect most any other company would LOVE to have a “failure” like AirTags, both in terms of sales and in terms of ‘public mindshare.’
Ming-Chi Kuo Seems locked in a downward spiral losing ever more personal credibility.