This week's Apple trading strategies (1/10-1/14/22)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas.

To get things rolling I offer a pair of contrasting analyses of tech stocks in the year ahead from a bull (Wedbush's Daniel Ives) and a bear (Satori Fund's Dan Niles):

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 1-10-22
Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

12 Comments

  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    It is a testament to Apple’s strength as a solid investment that during last week’s “tech wreck” that Apple closed down only 4.4% from its ATH. It’s also a validation that WS recognizes Apple’s inimitable balance sheet consisting of humongous cash reserves as far as the eyes can see that most countries would crave to use in running their governments. A market cap greater than most countries’ GNP.

    Apple’s products and services are in high demand, so much so that the company can’t meet consumers’ desires for more Apple products. Apple has a pipeline of unique and innovative products rolling out in the coming months. Apple has little to no competition in AR. In fact, I believe Apple will OWN the metaverse. Apple plans to target the transportation industry. Apple will become a formidable competitor in the industry as cars become “computers” on wheels! Apple may be on the cusp of disrupting the Health & Wellness industry with the Apple Watch freeing up tens of thousands of Home Health nurses and others who spend inordinate amounts of time burning fossil fuel traveling to visit patients for monitoring their health status.

    Three new galactic sources of potential revenues in three industrial sectors; transportation, metaverse and health & wellness for catapulting Apple to double and even “triple” in market cap size in the coming years.

    Apple closed down only 4.4% from its ATH during one of the worse tech sell offs in history, other than the dot com bust which personally seemed worse to me. I believe the painful part is behind us and that we will see new ATHs as we head into the end of the month Q1 quarterly results.

    4
    January 9, 2022
  2. Kenny Kruger said:
    How does Niles even have a job? He was slamming AAPL last summer and and was recommending Viacom as his top pick. How did that work out?

    2
    January 9, 2022
    • David Emery said:
      Certainly those two companies operate on completely different -ethical regimes-. And I think that’s part of the strength of Apple, -especially- under Tim Cook. Now Apple doesn’t have a perfect track record (as we’ve discussed here on multiple occasions), but in general it “does the right thing.” And I believe that management ethics is one of Warren Buffett’s top concerns when evaluating companies.

      2
      January 9, 2022
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Kenny: How does he still have a job? He founded his company. I’ve read bullish calls on energy and financials elsewhere on the Street. In my view, he sees Apple as a device maker. Apple is a device maker and so much more. He doesn’t get the “so much more.”

      3
      January 9, 2022
  3. Michael Goldfeder said:
    When it comes to who knows more about Apple, who are you going to believe; Dan Niles or Warren Buffet?

    My money says Niles’ kids are “blue bubbles.”

    0
    January 9, 2022
  4. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Meanwhile, Dan Ives says we are in the “middle innings of a 4th industrial revolution.” We know baseball games can often take a while. Even now, I see Apple positioning to reinvent itself again.

    1
    January 9, 2022
  5. Early innings, uh, bottom of the 2nd, no outs. Tim Cook at bat. Zuckerberg pitching softballs to a CEO ready to play hardball with multiple neural engines on his shoulder, a stellar dugout and an incredible roster in the bullpen.

    1
    January 9, 2022
  6. Jerry Doyle said:
    In deference to Daniel Ives, he long has been using the phrase that we are “… in the middle (sometimes midst) of the fourth industrial revolution.”

    Dan has been saying that phrase for many, many months. I drew closer in empathy with the man after I first heard him use that phrase knowing explicitly “he gets it!” We are in the middle of the fourth industrial revolution.

    The first industrial revolution consisted of mechanization. The second involved new sources of energies such as electricity, gas and oil thus creating the ICE along with airplanes and new methods of communications through telegraph and telephone. Then in the middle of the 20th century we moved into the third revolution giving rise to a new untapped energy: Nuclear energy! That revolution brought forth the rise of electronics, telecommunications and computers all leading to high levels of automation.

    Many folk say we now are in the fourth industrial revolution (4.0) that started with the Internet and is continuing to evolve with a magnitude still yet unknown but consisting of virtual reality where programs and projects are being developed. There is little doubt in my mind that Apple is positioning itself to play a pivotal role in 4.0 through helping peoples take advantage of all that 4.0 has to offer them.

    I truly believe Apple is maneuvering itself to double and even triple its market capitalization by the end of the decade; and we will see a concomitant rise in Apple’s share price along that continuum.

    2
    January 9, 2022
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Thomas and Jerry: Looking at the reports on the enterprise formerly knows as Facebook, the word “should” appears frequently in the analysis of the company’s move into the metaverse. Looking at it now, the move appears to be a “moonshot” for a company that generates a lot of cash. If I were to pick a winner in the race to the metaverse, hands down I’d go with Apple. As for the 4th industrial revolution, there’s a long run way for Apple’s current products. Adding in a MR/AR product component now makes a lot of sense.

      1
      January 9, 2022
  7. Bart Yee said:
    So if Niles was actually short Apple, just how low a short target would he need/set from various points to make it worth his while and to make money on the short positions?

    I would have suspected as AAPL kept making all time highs during December, Niles and other pessimistic traders would have been considering setting short positions, only finding themselves needing to cover on occasion. Of course, above $175-180, the feeling was there was going to be a harder wall to climb, macroeconomic conditions were going to deteriorate at some point sooner than later, and short setting would become easier.

    That instance came to pass now in January and many stocks (and options houses) obliged short positions.
    YTD, lowest relative to any high YTD, relative to 1 month high
    FB -1.36% YTD, lowest -5.86%, -8.56%
    AAPL -3.04% YTD, lowest -6.50%, -8.31% (note low was in Dec.)
    AMZN -2.50% YTD, lowest -5.52%, -8.60%
    NFLX -10.19% YTD, lowest -11.77%, -14.90%
    NVDA -7.36 YTD, lowest -11.88%, -16.19%
    TSLA -2.82% YTD, lowest -16.39%, -26.65% (note low in Dec, 1 month performance is actually -2.36%)
    GOOGL -5.41% YTD, lowest -7.28%, -8.91%
    MSFT -6.62% YTD, lowest -8.28%, -9.93%

    The above assumes one sets up shorts each time as prices move higher, always believing sooner or later the stock is going to pull back, sometimes abruptly or deeply. The fact that there is still significant short interest in AAPL suggests many still believe the bottom is still to come. We will see.

    0
    January 10, 2022

Leave a Reply