From a note to clients by analyst Benjamin Swinburne that landed on my desktop Monday:
Forever Young - generational shift in listening driving share shifts: Reported listening share for leading digital platforms increased while broadcast radio fell. SiriusXM (paid), Spotify (freemium), and YouTube (free & paid) saw increases in listening share YoY. These increases largely came out of AM-FM radio, which saw its reported listening share fall 300 bp to a still leading share of 36%. Listening behavior varies widely by age with Spotify garnering the largest reported listening share among 18-29 year olds at 21%, more than 2x Apple Music's reported share. This compares to over 50% share for broadcast radio among 65+, for example. While we estimate that ~50% of the US smartphone market subscribes to a paid streaming service today, the challenge for Spotify and other paid services is migrating free users to pay. While YouTube's reported listening share is similar to Spotify's, its 60% reach among the survey highlights the popularity of ad-supported music streaming on the world largest content platform.
Survey shows Spotify building an even more engaged, satisfied customer base: On-platform listening share, or the % of listening on Spotify by Spotify users, increased to 30% in this year's survey which is second only to SiriusXM. Reported hours listened on Spotify among Spotify users increased ~25% to 4.2 hours per week, also second only to SiriusXM. Spotify also moved into an effective tie with SiriusXM for #1 in overall listener satisfaction. Spotify's in-car listening share across all respondents remains low but is moving in the right direction, up 300 bp to 10% share. Finally, we note that Spotify's paid penetration of iOS and Android smartphone users moved up and was in-line with and ahead of Apple Music and YouTube Premium's penetration, respectively.
Cue the charts:
My take: Most of the people my age listen to the radio. Morgan Stanley doesn't care. It likes Spotify.
However – when I want to (try to) listen to music I don’t want DJs, I don’t want ads and I don’t want music I don’t care for. So I just listen to my own!
I know I might miss a bunch of good contemporary music – I do pick up bits and pieces – but I’m really too old to care much.
I have Apple One and a free Spotify account (mainly to transfer play lists with SongShift as many sites only provide Spotify play lists.)
Heard Spotify is having trouble getting GenZ users to sign up (and suspect Apple may be too.(
That’s specious.
Spotify is on all OSs. Apple Music is on only one.
Most of my friends are on Spotify and they also love Spotify. My friends with deep musical interests who have tried both services insist Spotify sends better personalised playlists/recommendations.
No doubt Spotify is executing very well and their lead may be unsurmountable. But I am pretty sure that if apple gets majority share on iOS then that will be a WIN. This report does not say if that is the case or not, my guess is its close to 50:50 in USA on iOS.
Apple ONE will continue to be more meaningful for more people. In the end I think Apple will find a user base that they are happy with.
Apple plays the long game and you bet against them at high risk.
Free is growing? Shocker.
Apple Music stuck a knife in rampant MP3 file pirating at the get-go of digital music (“your competition is free”), has avoided the ads crutch and has supported compensating artists from day one. Not a shocker.
An analyst discussing Apple mentioned their need to acquire more video content providers, suggesting they may buy a studio. Relationships with the firm tied to Reese Witherspoon helped but to compete with Disney, NetFlix, HBO, etc. Apple needs to buy more content. I expect they will in 2022.
Disclosure: I’ve subscribed to XM since it’s inception. I’m often in my motor vehicle but the anywhere app, traffic, comedy and participation of many performers including Tom Petty, RIP and Niel Young keep me awake & tracking those sats to this day.
music streamers all loose money. not good business. 15 euro a month you can listen to millions of albums. before you paid thousands a year.