This week’s Apple trading strategies (9/20-9/24)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas.

To get things rolling, here are a couple analysts on CNBC after the iPhone 13 event: JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee and Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall…

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 9/20/21
Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

14 Comments

  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    Samik Chatterjee is slipping into the mindset with many on WS that the driver for iPhone upgrades (especially in the US) is 5G. Every consumer whom I have interviewed that purchased a new iPhone never once mentioned 5G as the driver for their upgrading. These consumers inferred it was time for them to upgrade as their previous phone was two or more years old. To my knowledge we have no 5G anywhere in my state, certainly not high band 5G or even mid-band 5G. I am not aware of even low band 5G.

    Additionally, many of the consumers mentioned above purchasing the 13 (and 12) all said it was the carriers’ aggressive discount incentives that enticed them to purchase “more” phone. In other words, some of these consumers moved up to the high-end Pro models because of the upgrade incentives offered by the carriers.

    We continue to hear this talk that this period is the super-cycle upgrade period, but we now are finding out that the super-cycle upgrade period is perpetual going forward. At 1,000,000,000 plus installed base we are going to more than likely see 250,000,000 plus iPhones sold yearly. That 250,000,000 is recognizing if folk held onto their phones for four years! That my friends, is a continuous super-cycle.

    As far PED’s trading strategies chart relative to specific day’s events such as September 17 where the Apple Card snafu happened and certainly the Apple, Google cave to the Kremlin, these are non-events affecting Apple stock prices. I have not heard anyone commenting on the Apple, Google cave to the Kremlin other than the NYT. When I inquired yesterday among Apple friends they didn’t know anything about the subject. What affected stock prices last week were slump in retail sales, concerns over inflation, Delta variant, concern that the Fed may soon initiate its tapering move, supply chain disruptions, not Apple’s complying with laws of the Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.

    2
    September 19, 2021
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    I won’t comment on Rod Hall’s comments. Nope. Not me. I won’t comment on Rod Hall’s comments. Nope. I won’t comment on Rod Hall’s comments. I won’t comment… OK. Just a brief comment… WTF? I mean… Seriously??? Never mind… I won’t comment on Rod Hall’s comments… Time to click my heels three times…

    5
    September 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Did you turn around before you clicked your heels? Upvoted.

      On the other hand Samir made an observation that reminded of an online debate I hade years ago on the AOL Apple forum with Ron Logee (Ronmaven). He was arguing Ron Halls position that 10% -12% increase in speed metrics wasn’t enough to move the sales needle. I took Samil’s poisition that 10%-15% compounded over 4 years (we’re talking Mac upgrade cycle) could be as much as 65% speed boost.

      The two interviews clearly demonstrated the level of critical thinking of each interviewee.

      1
      September 19, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Truth in lending time.

    AAPL did Close above $146 (me target), however, 15 minutes earlier AAPL dipped below $146 causing Schwab’s risk management team to close my position prematurely As a result I sustained a very minor loss for the week.

    My historic trend chart indicates that AAPL is going to rebound this week. That is countered by a friend who is a TA freak that expects AAPL to continue downward.

    I’m going to wait until about 10 AM EST time before making an investment decision. I’ll be looking at world exchanges, pre-market and Futures for indications of the track AAPL will most likely follow.

    1
    September 19, 2021
    • Dave Ryder said:
      Gregg, please post the trade you decide to make. I’m tip-toeing into some options around my AAPL position. On 9/7 I sold AAPL220414C175 and bought AAPL220414P140. Worked well so far.
      -Dave

      0
      September 19, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        At about 11:30 AM EST placed an order for $139/$140 Call Spreads @ 77c (sans fees). At about 12.15 PM EST, that order was filled. AAPL was at $142.40 and is now trading at $142.21.

        I want AAPL to Close above $140 on Friday. Breakeven is $139.78.

        0
        September 20, 2021
  4. Adam Stein said:
    Futures looking crashy for tomorrow morning…

    0
    September 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Far East exchanges look weak at the moment, as does the major US exchanges.

      At this point My natural optimism remains high, it’s still almost 12 hours until the Open.

      0
      September 20, 2021
  5. “From a Users standpoint 5G doesn’t change much.” – Rod Hall on 5G rollout.
    Mr. Hall sees no value to 5G and calls this “An Off Year for Apple” therefore I can assume Rod is blowing wind, again. No Research Rod winging it.
    “Anyone who conducts an argument by appealing to authority is not using his intelligence; he is just using his memory.” – Leonardo da Vinci

    0
    September 20, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      5G, Maybe not materially yet in the US but apparently the telecoms certainly want to incentivize buyers to purchase the newest 5G iPhones so that is going to drive sales and promotions. China iPhone sales growth because of 5G and improved economic conditions will boost Apple market share, mindshare, and long term visibility. California Streamin’ indeed.

      It is so ironic that most US based analysts cannot seem to understand how much international business Apple creates and grows on with all hardware lines and software services.

      0
      September 20, 2021

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