From TheStreet’s “Tesla Stock Active, Dow Futures Flat Amid Focus on Fed Tapering; Oil Rebounds” posted early Tuesday:
U.S. equity futures edged lower again Tuesday, while Treasury bond yields continued to creep higher, as markets approach an infection point predicated on changes to the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary support programs.
A host of Fed officials spoke yesterday of the need to signal changes to the central bank’s bond buying program, which is scooping up $120 billion a month in Treasury, agency and mortgage bonds in order to hold down market rates and add further support to corporate investment.
However, with recent employment reports suggesting the economy is bringing back nearly a 1 million new jobs each month, and inflation running at multi-year highs, officials including Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed, Tom Barkin of Richmond and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are suggesting the time is right to being trimming purchases while plotting a path towards the first Fed rate hike since December 2018.
That has benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields back on the move Tuesday, rising to 1.33% in overnight trading, while the dollar index is marked at a three-week high of 93.02 against a basket of its global peers.
Stocks, meanwhile, are hovering at all-time highs near the tail end of a second quarter earnings season that is on pace to see collective S&P 500 profits rise 93.1% from last year to $439.5 billion.
My take: Moving sideways at low volume. UPDATE: Moving up.
Tomorrow pre-market will be green and the author will attribute that action to a reversal of today’s reasons.
The reality is that the author doesn’t know apples from oranges, but he/she writes convincingly and with the air of authority, or I like to say, they are real good at faking sincerity.
BTW, pre-market is now GREEN. So much for your today’s reasoning.
Geo-political events can turn markets on a dime. Weather disasters and natural calamities can affect segments of markets where one is invested. Supply and demand factors in supply chains can turn investment matters upside down. Company related factors, the Gregg T investors’ sentiment, Fed decisions, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and a multitude of economic factors all overnight can affect the best laid investment plans.
My investment theory is to look in the rear view mirror more than out the front windshield. Track records of companies’ performance during good economic times as well as during economic stress (think Covid-19) is something to embrace. The quality of their products and services and the demand for such is material to me. Their ability to produce all those fundamentals of revenues, earnings, cash on hand, buybacks, and favorable public repute. The CEO and senior executive team and how their performance effect the positive of staffs to the lowest level in the organization. I could go on and enumerate many more factors.
Making a good and solid investment is easy, but attempting to predict the market is a moving target in the murky night sky.
“Trying to forecast [short term AAPL] market trends is an art, not a science…”
There. Fixed it for you. Witness the rollercoaster ride this AM…
Apple’s long term trend is far less an art and far more certain. It’s going up.