This week's Apple trading strategies (7/12-7/16)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas.

To get this rolling, here's Raymond James' Chris Caso talking up Apple in the midst of last Thursday's sell-off.

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 7-12-21

Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

9 Comments

  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    “…. the mix toward the high end is permanent.”

    This portends for a good 1Q and 2Q 2022 for Apple. Apple has corrected its supply chain to ensure it meets demands for devices in various segments this year. The “mix toward the high end (of Pros and Pro Max) is permanent” speaks to other possible ramifications of a new anomaly. What suddenly is behind this transition of consumer purchases toward the more costly product mix on the high end? I suspect that what is driving this transition is more discretionary pocket money & as these consumers cultivate a taste for the highest premium Apple offerings, then that new found taste continues in subsequent generations of phones. It is little different than consumers who cultivate a new appreciation for any premium offering. Once the consumer cultivates a savoire-faire involving a premium experience, a higher level of elegance, style & refinement, there is no turning back for that consumer. That consumer is “locked-in” to continuing purchasing the higher end models.

    As horrendous as the pandemic has been to Apple in some ways, the pandemic may have introduced a new generation of Apple consumers to buy going forward the premium line-up of iPhone models to maintain that tastefulness of refinement rendered from owning the higher-end model of phones. There is no turning back for these consumers.

    6
    July 11, 2021
    • Fred Stein said:
      Jerry, I upvoted, based on your insight: The permanence of consumers seeing the value of, and paying for, better products / better experiences.

      Again there is a much bigger picture. We’ve seen massive increases in the supply of fiat and crypto currencies in the last 18 months*. In light of those increases, the increase in Apple’s wallet share hardly matters. The increase in supply of money increase price elasticity.

      *While the increase of the last 18 months have been dramatic, over the last 2 decades, money supply increases have been well above historic norms.

      0
      July 11, 2021
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    I’m due for a loss. Historically (5 year average) my weekly strategy experiences a 23% loss ratio, about 1 in every 4/5 weeks. I have currently had 6 straight winners.

    What to do? This may be the week, and then it may not. With an RSI of 80.93 (extremely over bought) the setup for a loss is ripe. On the other hand it could be argued that AAPL is just recapturing valuation it deserved in January.

    I’m in the latter camp, AAPL’s ISM doesn’t concern me, especially if Mr. Market is expecting solid EPS gains later this month. With estimated ttm of $5.xx to start the next earnings to earnings cycle (resulting in an ISM in the low 30’s) I think this rally will continue into the foreseeable future (said with one eye on historical averages).

    What others are trading at is a non-issue.

    I will be looking for Monday’s intraday low, then buying in-the-money Call Spreads. I have noticed of late that Options time premium has increased slightly. This is good for sellers, not so much for buyers. With Call Spreads they tend to remain the same, cancelling each other out.

    1
    July 11, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Last week I joined the crypto crowd with a purchase of TEN MILLION Sheba Inu Coin. I’m looking for it to increase in value to ONE PENNY. If it does that I’ll make $99,910 profit, having paid $90 for the lot. The risk reward was just too great to pass it by.

    If it never goes anywhere I’m out two tanks of gas for my car. There’s no time limit, as in Options, and I can afford to wait forever.

    1
    July 11, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      I just looked, my Sheba is down $12.

      1
      July 11, 2021
  4. Steven Philips said:
    “Come Back Little Sheba” ! 🙂

    0
    July 13, 2021
  5. 35 Emmy Nominations for Apple, 20 for Ted Lasso alone – Source: Emmys dot com
    This goes a long way towards vindicating AppleTV+ strategy, attracting/buying more talent and growing subscribers. A needed infusion after all those extended free trials expire.

    0
    July 13, 2021
  6. Nominated for Outstanding Commercial Emmy:
    It Already Does That – Apple Watch Series 6
    Apple, Ad Agency
    MJZ, Production Company

    0
    July 13, 2021

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