This week's Apple trading strategies (6/14-6/18)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas. (This one features a rare Rod Hall video.)

To get things rolling, here's Goldman Sachs' Rod Hall making his first public appearance after the Sell he put on Apple last year went famously bad. [See How does Goldman Sachs’ Apple analyst still have a job?] "We get things wrong once in a while and, um, we took our lumps on that one."

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 6-14

Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

9 Comments

  1. David Emery said:
    The only thing I want to hear from Hall is his letter of resignation for being so completely and consistently wrong for so long. Otherwise, I wouldn’t dignify this moron by watching anything he’s in. (Don’t feed the trolls!)

    4
    June 13, 2021
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Rod just explained why his target is wrong. He said, “we see revenue per user as static.”

    That means his $130 PT is really a base case.

    1
    June 13, 2021
  3. Fred Stein said:
    Actually revenue per user deserves more analysis.

    Above Avalon, analyzed this 2 years ago, May, 2019. While dated, the insights still make the case for sustained growth in number of users and revenue per user.

    2
    June 13, 2021
  4. Mark Visnic said:
    Apple should use Hall’s estimate that services penetration among the installed base is less than 25% to push off regulators.

    2
    June 13, 2021
  5. Mark Visnic said:
    Implicit in Hall’s view is that the installed base isn’t growing and has, or soon will, hit a stone wall. Another implicit flaw is his view that services revenue is stuck at a less than 25% penetration rate for the installed base. Apple’s installed base has grown steadily and its hardware unit share suggests further share gains are likely. The ARPU also should continue to steadily rise as new services roll out and Apple strengthens recently rolled out services.

    3
    June 13, 2021
  6. Michael Goldfeder said:
    Interesting that Rod’s a bundle subscriber. While his Mea Culpa about changing from a sell to a hold rating on the stock is due to the “blowout” quarters, I’m thinking it’s really because of the caustic comments he reads on Apple 3.0.

    4
    June 13, 2021
  7. Gregg Thurman said:
    Three of my last 4 weekly trades (after sitting out several consecutive weeks) have profited an average of ~29%. This is in stark contrast to the multi-week period preceding my self induced investment quarantine wherein investment results were decidedly upside down.

    The period October 2020 through mid May 2021 was easily the worst in the five years I traded weeklies and tracked results.

    Current weekly trading performance may reverse for the most irrational reasons (mostly WS fear of the boogie man rumor).

    I am going to continue trading weeklies, but with a slight modification of my strategy. I am going to continue on the the same more conservative stance as I have these past 4 weeks. Example: this past week I traded the $122/$123 Call Spread where ordinarily I would have traded the $124/$125 Call Spread. AAPL finished the week strongly (a good sign) above $127. In the past I would have traded up to achieve a higher ROI, this week I did not.

    0
    June 14, 2021
  8. Gregg Thurman said:
    In recent days there appears to be a rotation occurring out of commodities and into energy and technology equities.

    0
    June 14, 2021

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