Toni Sacconaghi vs. Jim Cramer on Apple’s WWDC21 (dueling videos)

26 Comments

  1. Sacconaghi uses the original Airpods. I have a set I still use. But my curiosity about Apple product developments led me to explore Airpods Pro. Now I’m poised to enjoy the new Conversation Boost and spatial audio, a boon to someone with significant hearing loss. I value these improvements. Features also perfectly suited for someone participating in interviews from remote locations.

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    June 8, 2021
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Hats off to Cramer praising incremental. When you’re ahead that’s all you need.

    On the other side, Intel, forgot. They let their lead in PC chips lapse and now lose to Apple’s M-series, AMD, NVIDIA, and TSMC.

    I will soon buy the iMac 24″, my first true desktop in decades. And I predict this device will catch on big time over a long time for 2 reasons (incremental): 1) That M1 chip, after over a decade of incremental improvements smokes the competition. 2) The camera and sound incremental improvements make a difference on conference calls, an increasing part of our new normal work/life.

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    June 8, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      On the other side, Intel, forgot. They let their lead in PC chips lapse and now lose to Apple’s M-series</OS it was doomed to ultimate failure.

      The problem wasn’t Intel, it was MSFT and MSFT’s reliance on the enterprise (wanting low cost PC’s).

      Motorola’s (chosen because MOT was the only vendor that gave Woz a free sample) was actually a superior processor. This led to adoption of the 68000 processor for the Mac. The 68000 was powerful enough to power a GUI and graphical applications. Intel didn’t have anything to match it until the 486. By then Intel was THE processor leader due to the sheer volume of cheap DOS based PCs. Everybody was designing for x86.

      As an architecture x86 had a performance ceiling, quickly realized with the Pentium series.

      But because of its reliance on MSFT (Windows) Intel was trapped in a dead end road map that had no where to go. Intel didn’t forget, it was stuck with a 20th century partner/ball & chain (MCSFT’s Ballmer) that prevented it from moving into the 21st century.

      In my opinion, Nadella (MCSFT’s new CEO) has abandoned Windows as the company’s flag ship/cash cow in favor of Cloud services and internet (SaaS) services.

      Apple’s ARM based silicon and its actual and future performance potential is perfectly positioned to replace Intel in the enterprise over the next 10 years It all comes down to processor architectures. A Series/M Series’s architecture is positioned for performance growth, while Intel’s x86, having hit its development ceiling, is stuck in the 20th century, a century rapidly fading into the past.

      IMO, if either DELL or HP is to survive one or the other will become a service company for Apple in the enterprise.

      The paradigm shift is underway.

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      September 18, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Why has Apple devoted so much of its resources to 5G development? I’ve been saying it for a while, and now Cramer has said it: 5G is faster than cable.

      IMO, Apple is going to put 5G in everything, INCLUDING a 5G based AirPort Extreme/Express. We are looking at Apple destroying another industry: Cable and possibly fiber and ISP’s. Get your communications And content ANYWHERE (with a future satellite augmentation) via 5G.

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      September 18, 2021
  3. Michael Goldfeder said:
    I am so tired of hearing the following trite cliches:

    “Incremental; muted; transitory; headwinds; base case; pivot; baked into; pull forward; lift the kimono; and my all time hated-elongated replacement cycle.”

    Tony usually incorporates several of these obnoxious cliches in every interview when discussing Apple.

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    June 8, 2021
    • Fred Stein said:
      Yes.

      See my joke prediction in comments about Gene Munster observations in yesterday’s Apple 3.0 posting.

      I’m a big fan of incremental. Apple increments grow in multiple dimensions – # of users; devices per user; services per user, revenue per user. On the silicon side Apple’s increments extend a lead that is already unbeatable.

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      June 8, 2021
      • Bart Yee said:
        @Fred Yep, as it goes, a few Billion here, a few billion there, and soon we’re talking about real(ly) big market cap. It took Apple 19 years (1980-1999) to go from $1B to $10B market cap. It then took just 8 years to get to $100B in early 2007. From there, it reached $200B in 3 years (2010) and $1T in 11 years (2018). It would only be 2 more years (2020) and doubled that to $2T market cap.

        Every incremental bit of growth keeps adding up. While sometimes being dwarfed and overshadowed by home runs like iPhone 12’s, every line of Apple’s business is “curated” and carefully tended to within “the garden”, really an ever expanding farm or continent, that keeps bearing more and more fruits.

        Analysts never seem to see the whole forest for all the different groves of trees that Apple cultivates and grows. And they never appreciate the hybrids and special trees that may seem like tiny projects yet lead to eventual towers over other’s trees.

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        June 9, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      I actually thought Saccocrap’s analysis was pretty straight forward and accurate, until the last sentence.

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      September 18, 2021
  4. Robert LoCascio said:
    The only question you have to ask yourself is: How much money have Toni Sacconaghi’s clients NOT made over the last 5 years as a result of his calls on Apple…?

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    June 8, 2021
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    I’m reminded of a line from a movie seen long ago, “If you worked for me, you wouldn’t be working for me”.

    That’s how I feel about Sacconaghi. On another, somewhat similar, note. Can we stop reading/discussing this great non-entity? Time is too valuable to waste any on him.

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    June 8, 2021
    • David Drinkwater said:
      Sort of like the Analyst Who Won’t Be Named. Why publish him?

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      June 8, 2021
  6. Hap Allen said:
    Nassim Taleb has said: “The world is a power law.”

    The proliferation of Apple products, features, and services brings to mind the expression “the miracle of compounding.”

    Yes, Taleb also warns of the fragility that comes with size. Which is a concern…

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    June 8, 2021
  7. Horace Dediu said:
    Incrementalism is what creates compounding growth. Let the one who is against compounding cast the first stone.

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    June 8, 2021
  8. Timothy Smith said:
    I couldn’t watch all of today’s MacBreak Weekly, but what I saw had Leo Laporte and Alex LIndsey GUSHING over the new software. Very unusual for Leo to be that impressed with Apple.

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    June 8, 2021
  9. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    (Apologies — my comments here cut & pasted from a previous post, but certainly apply to Mr. Sacconaghi‘s take on Apple.)

    >>>

    Lest we forget, it’s about iteration and polish.
    As this slick WWDC wrap-up video from Serenity C. attests, simply and to the point, Apple is much more than great devices.

    The endearment of our devices distills down to that of bespoke and personal utility. The software breathes the life into the hardware — the core theme of WWDC.

    Apple gets the human part of the human interface. Always has. A birthright bestowed at the onset by Jobs. That this all holds hands under a successful and unified set of platforms, just makes the experience all the more fulfilling leaving today’s assault on Apple’s “Walled Garden” as a sadly misconstrued snipe.

    Sorry that the competition hasn’t been able to achieve the same. It’s certainly not Apple’s fault that they haven’t.

    If anything, blame Apple’s happy customers for knowing a good (and safe) thing when they see it.

    2
    June 8, 2021
  10. Bart Yee said:
    Had a fun visit at Costco today to purchase a new iPad 10.2”, 128gb in Space grey and AppleCare+, total sale including tax ~$500. Had to visit 3 stores before I found one with in-store stock.

    I asked the gal in secure merchandise pickup how Apple vs. Samsung equivalents sales were. She said “oh we can sell 10 iPads or iPad Air in 2 days, a regular reorder. We might sell a Samsung tablet about 1 every two weeks.” How about the Apple Watch (SE and Series 6)? “They also move pretty fast, similar to the iPad vs Android tablets.” What’s your best seller? “By far, it’s the regular AirPods, lots of young people buying them right and left, hard to keep them in stock. Sell better than AirPods Pro because of price. Both sell way better than any other wireless bud we sell.”

    How about AppleCare+? “Most people get AppleCare+ for almost all Apple products.” And sales this June quarter?? “Apple sales doing very well, especially with Mother’s and Father’s Day, plus graduations and high Covid related demand.”

    If this is the way that 3 LA area Costco Store is reflecting middle to upper end demand, Apple’s US sales should be fine. Didn’t get a chance to ask about MacBooks though. iPhones sold at separate carrier kiosk.

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    June 9, 2021
    • Jerry Doyle said:
      @Bart Yee: thanks for that informative update. I do the same everywhere Apple products are sold. I used to do it internationally before Covid hit. I truly believe that “boots-on-the-ground” gleaned information from site visits gathered at points of Apple sales talking with sales staff is one of the better methods for gauging product acceptance and sales. Thanks for sharing that information with us.

      2
      June 9, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        I truly believe that “boots-on-the-ground” gleaned information from site visits gathered at points of Apple sales talking with sales staff is one of the better methods for gauging product acceptance and sales.

        Until Luca Maestri became CFO this is what EPS estimates. I have found Maestri’s guidance predictably accurate (after determining his variance schema) and have relied on it exclusively since. COVID put a stop to that. I’m hoping Maestri’s historical guidance pattern returns soon.

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        September 18, 2021
        • Gregg Thurman said:
          I don’t know how my post lost an entire sentence this is how it was supposed to read “ this is what I used to do to generate my revenue EPS estimates.”

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          September 18, 2021
    • Alan Birnbaum said:
      It reminds me of Peter Lynch ( of Magellan fund) years ago would go to various popular stores to sample how well products were selling. Considering that Magellan went from $18M to $14B in 13 years, not a bad way to assess a stock.

      1
      June 9, 2021
      • Kirk DeBernardi said:
        @ Alan Birnbaum —

        Nothing trounces like the solid honest truth.

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        June 9, 2021
    • David Emery said:
      No Costco near me, I had to drive to the Apple Store (hour away) to get my new iPad 10″ 128 (2020 model). Fortunately, I’m getting $140 for my previous Air 2 128. Not bad at all!

      But I won’t say the experience overall was very satisfying. Apple apparently needs 4 hours to pull an iPad at the store and set it aside. You can’t do the trade-in at the store, Apple sends the trade-in shipping container separately. And sometimes being treated by the store employees like a ‘dude’ starts to feel condescending. But at least I was in and out in 10 minutes, including buying a case. My feelings about the Apple Store have in general gone WAY down since I visited Store #2 shortly after it opened (when we lived in Northern VA.)

      1
      June 9, 2021
      • Bart Yee said:
        @David, I would’ve considered going to the Apple store but Costco had a better price for both the iPad and AppleCare+. I regularly shop at Costco because they accept Apple Pay and I can usually get in and out very quickly by arranging all my barcodes up to be scanned quickly. But this time I was directed to use the self check out. To my and the assistant’s dismay, the self check out would not allow purchase of AppleCare+. I had to then purchase the iPad and AppleCare+ at a separate kiosk and deal with a fraud warning from my credit card (because of some large charges recently) but we got it all straightened out and I was on my way. I actually look forward to going back to the Apple store to look for cases and accessories. I hope to find the store hopping and bustling with customers, even though masked.

        I wish I could’ve traded in my iPad Air 2 but it has a bad lightning charging port and being out of warranty it would cost almost 2/3 of a new iPad to fix. Maybe I’ll see if I can find a low cost repair to salvage the iPad. I’m dictating this post on the new iPad and it really only took 40 minutes to set up and about six hours overnight to fully reload all of the apps and games we use for this particular iPad. It’s interesting to watch the iPad translate my dictation and actually fix capital and punctuation errors even after the sentence was closed. That’s the power of the A12 chip running off iOS 14.5. It will be interesting to see how it performs under iOS 15.

        0
        June 9, 2021
  11. I shop for my parents on large military bases where there are tax-free shopping malls for active duty & retired military. Price discounts too. Each Base Exchange keeps expanding the Apple section with the latest products and Apple accessories. Seriously trained sales staff are always busy. With those discounts even the troops can swing a Macbook.
    “…arguments, like men, are often pretenders.” — Plato

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    June 9, 2021

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