J.P. Morgan: Flat China iPhone sales in April indicate further market share gains

From a note to clients by analyst Samik Chatterjee that landed on my desktop Wednesday:

China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) disclosed that international (Apple) shipments were flat m/m in April, which was better than the -18% average seasonal downtick observed historically, as absolute monthly units remained resilient at 2.7 mn.

However, the month of April did also mark the second straight y/y decline following five consecutive months of increases as the region moves into tougher comps relative to an easy compare for growth in 1Q.

For the industry overall, China mobile phone shipments declined -24% m/m in the region (see Figure 1 and Figure 2), which compares to an average seasonal uptick of +13% m/m seen historically going from March to April in the region.

The comparison of the trends between Apple and industry volumes indicates that Apple continues to gain share even as momentum in the industry has slowed recently. 5G mobile phone shipments declined -22% m/m to 21.4 mn units and accounted for greater than 78% of total shipments; and on a y/y basis industry volumes were up +30% y/y, which is in line with expectation for better seasonal trends for 5G smartphone vs. rest of the industry.

Maintains Overweight rating and $165 price target. 

Cue Figures 1 and 2:

My take: Evercore’s Amit Daryanani had this yesterday, but for him the glass was half emply.


  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    Reminds me of the ‘60s when glasses came in several different colors, one for each of your many personalities.

    After 2 absolute blowout quarters I’m inclined to think the market for a new iPhone is getting much smaller. The reality is it doesn’t matter because WS is pricing Apple’s future in negative terms, and I don’t see that changing until next April (after Apple demonstrates this year’s growth is not an aberration).

    May 12, 2021
  2. bas flik said:
    because of all the free money real cashflows are not valued anymore.
    WS have become addicted to dreams. They value loosing companies not knowing how to make money but dream big.

    May 13, 2021
    • Rodney Avilla said:
      that’s a good distinction between value stocks and growth stocks.

      May 13, 2021
  3. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    Doesn’t it also say something if you have two analysts analyzing roughly the same info and their take is going in opposite directions.

    Part of the current price malaise?

    Where have we heard this tune before ? Maybe Apple is starting to become doomed again.

    …I kid. 😉

    May 13, 2021

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