Apple at $143.16: How bad were the analysts’ 12-month price targets?

Nobody was even close. The best was off by 43%, the worst by 112%. Average miss: 73%.

apple analysts price targets bad
How far off were they? Click the “percentage miss” column in the chart below.

Not seeing the chart? Click here.

My take: Among the many things that broke in 2020 were Wall Street’s Apple models.

Thanks to friend-of-the-blog Horace Dediu, who suggested this exercise.

6 Comments

  1. David Emery said:
    How about 5 year data? The ANALysts could argue “this was a black swan year” But I strongly suspect there is substantial historical data to show that many ANALysts have a clear history of being wrong.

    1
    January 27, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      How about 5 year data?

      It would require some digging, but Apple 3.0 has all that time specific data in its archives. How about giving it a shot David.

      I’m sure PED could help e data retrieval.

      2
      January 27, 2021
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    Absolutely wonderful headline graphic.

    1
    January 27, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Hmm, the target most criticized in the media as being too aggressive, was also the closest to being correct.

    If past equals prologue what does that say about Ives’ $200 (Bull case) target?

    3
    January 27, 2021
  4. Fred Stein said:
    Note the ‘continental shelf’ Last year it was $87.5, underwater, but drop-off after that.

    Today that shelf looks like $150.

    0
    January 27, 2021
  5. David Drinkwater said:
    This is an excellent analytical review. Thanks for this, PED.

    I would hope that analysts (and their managers and bosses and customers) look at this.

    In some small manner of deference/defense to the analysts who put their names behind the by-lines, I wonder if their managers and bosses and customers do or don’t request that guidance stay conservative.

    That said, no excuses or mercy for anyone who was off by over 80%.

    1
    January 27, 2021

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