From a note to clients by analyst Krish Sankar that landed on my desktop Thursday:
We estimate the overall PC market in CY20 grew 8.3% Y/Y based on units driven by ongoing work- / learn-from-home (WFH/LFH) trends, with client PC shipments growing an estimated 9% Y/Y during C4Q20. We anticipate this momentum to continue throughout much of CY21, leading to shipment growth of 2.5% this year.
This is consistent with our supply chain field work that also suggests notebook PC builds growing low single-digit % in CY21. We believe the product form factor mix will continue to be weighted broadly towards notebooks (estimated 55%) and another healthy dose of Chromebooks (14%)…
In the IT Hardware space, Apple remains our top pick given refreshed MacBook and iPad product portfolios, estimated 70%+ consumer/education sales exposure, and new in-sourced M-series chips that could help alleviate some CPU procurement issues.
We believe notebook and Chromebook growth will continue to benefit HP but an acceleration in earnings will also necessitate a recovery in the Printing business. Dell’s consumer PC exposure is estimated at ~30% and improve once enterprise demand rebounds, i.e. workers return to the office.
Maintains Outperform rating and $133 price target.
My take: The Mac has been an also-ran in the PC market since, well, since 1984. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I doubt it’s ever passed 10% in terms of PC units shipped. To be, in at least one analyst’s eyes, a top pick… well, that’s something.