Apple’s secret roadmap

From friend-of-the-blog Gregg Thurman (adapted from a multipart New Year’s Day comment):

Apple has long desired to control the whole widget, there is no question about that, but even many of Apple’s most ardent enthusiasts have failed to see where Apple is going — its end game — focusing instead on a reality which stops with what is known. Controlling the whole widget means controlling the hardware, the software and the EXPERIENCE. The buying public is endorsing that vision, but unwittingly, reacting only to the EXPERIENCE.

The incredible advances made by Apple over the decades may have appeared major as they were being released, but in actuality were minor in relation to Apple’s end goal, its unexpressed roadmap.

In my opinion Apple has a vision, not limited by the vision of others (Intel, Qualcomm, Skyworks, AVGO, Broadcom, et al) and that vision should be becoming clearer and clearer to active shareholders.

Apple has only developed one product in the last 23 years, and that is a unified hardware/software platform that can address a myriad of seeming unconnected applications seamlessly.

All of Apple’s products use a common architecture OS based on UNIX, the engine (developed by Bell Labs) behind the oldest and largest integrated network on the planet, the telephone network.

In addition, Apple has developed semi-conductors, using a common architecture, for all of its products, from the smallest (AirPods) to the largest (Mac Pro), as well as semi’s for task-specific uses, and the softwares behind it all.

The only limit to Apple’s growth is one’s imagination. Some have it, some don’t, resulting in financial fear every time AAPL hits a new all time high. PE (a worthless nomenclature for a valid metric) be damned, it’s all about Investor Sentiment. Investor Sentiment Multiple (aka ISM), the name I have given to the underlying metric, says Apple is worth its current price and TREND.

I don’t need to know what new, magical thing Apple is working on to know that something is going to be announced, something I had never thought of, something that delights. And that Thing, combined/integrated with all other Apple developed Things, will drive further revenue, earnings and stock appreciation.

My take: What Gregg said.

16 Comments

  1. David Emery said:
    The counter-argument to this is Apple dropping its networking hardware and systems. Unless Apple thinks that in a couple of years WiFi will be irrelevant (replaced by “5G everywhere”), Apple has ceded control of the network substrate to companies like NetGear and Eero. That was a bad decision by Apple a couple years ago, and it’s still a Huge Hole in the notion that Apple wants to control the whole user experience. The networking gear, in particular, is essential for Apple Home (but then, I’ve never been convinced that Apple is truly serious about that, too.)

    5
    January 1, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      You may be right. I recently replaced my dead AirPort Extreme with a Linksys piece of crap. As old as the Exreme was it never, I mean never, gave me any heartache. I can’t say the same for Linksys.

      But the WiFi is someone else’s standard using someone else’s IP. the only thing Apple did was ship with better components and much better interface software.

      I can’t help but believe that Apple is on the verge of abandoning WiFi as the hub for its home IoT.

      Combining Apple’s own chip design prowess with Qualcomm 5G licenses could result in a network capability unlike anything we have experienced to date.

      In my analysis of Apple I have long ago ceased looking at the trees and am more interested in the forest.

      4
      January 1, 2021
      • Roger Schutte said:
        Gregg, I know it’s now owned by Amazon, but you want to replace that Linksys piece of crap with Eero. Base with 2 mesh extenders are working very well for me. Admin in an iOS app. You won’t be disappointed.

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        January 1, 2021
        • David Emery said:
          I have an Eero 6 connected to my Airport Extreme, Eero is in bridge mode. (Eero does NOT support PPPoE, which is what my ISP uses to validate my connection). It’s working well, signal strength is better than the Airport Extreme and 2 Airport Express I used to use. More importantly for me, the Expresses connect to the Eero (albeit after reinitialization), and AirTunes works just fine over the home WiFI, both to speakers connected to Airport Express and to my HomePod.

          The setup wasn’t trivial, in large part because I was in bridge mode rather than “Eero runs everything,” their default/expected approach.

          Eventually, I’ll replace more of the Airport Extreme functions with my PFSense box, particularly for firewall, DHCP and possibly routing different subnets in the house (putting the untrusted TVs and wireless thermostat on a different network from my trusted Apple devices 🙂 )

          0
          January 1, 2021
        • Gregg Thurman said:
          Thanks. It had been a very long time since I’d purchased a WiFi unit. I followed the Best Buy rep recommendation.

          0
          January 1, 2021
        • Troy Thoman said:
          I’ve been very happy with my Netgear Orbi. I picked it because it allows for wired satellites, which in my super long ranch house (that I already ran Cat6 all over) worked perfectly for me. This way my Satellites are at either end of the house and the main Router is in the center of the house.

          0
          January 1, 2021
      • Aaron Belich said:
        I’ll restate what Roger said. Theres a lot better stuff out there than Linksys. I was going to go with Eero, but Amazon bought them out so I tried Linksys’ mesh system… trash. Ended up with Synology as I like their other products. I’m happy with it, but if it wasn’t for Synology, I’d be on an Eero system.

        0
        January 1, 2021
        • Roger Schutte said:
          Unlike Google and the Nest acquisition, Amazon has not messed with Eero. I’m down to just 1 Nest left to be replaced with Ecobee’s.

          0
          January 1, 2021
    • John Blackburn said:
      If Apple’s solution is UWB, whose range of 100m seems adequate for home-networking solutions, you might expect Apple to exit the WiFi market while gradually bringing UWB to its devices. Once the installed base reached critical mass, perhaps Apple would introduce next-gen home networking to match.

      0
      January 1, 2021
  2. David Baraff said:
    MInor quibble: “All of Apple’s products use a common architecture OS based on UNIX, the engine (developed by Bell Labs) behind the oldest and largest integrated network on the planet, the telephone network.”

    Unix was certainly not the engine behind the telephone network at the time it was first created, because the network existed way before Unix did. (I worked at the same Bell Labs, Murray Hill, where Unix was created, just a few years after it was created, and grew up using the original Unix variant as a kid with access to Bell Labs computers even before I worked there.) I don’t know for certain, but I don’t think Unix grew to back AT&T’s phone network either.

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    January 1, 2021
  3. Tommo_UK said:
    What you said Greg.

    Upvoted 10x

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    January 1, 2021
  4. Fred Stein said:
    Thanks Gregg for an excellent write-up.

    And thanks for kicking off the new year with the right focus, the big picture.

    2
    January 1, 2021
  5. Adam Foster said:
    I run wireless across two campuses (farms) six miles apart. I have 122 radios, computers, printers, eco bees, one Nest (I need to get rid of), ect. I can drive my tractor making hay in the fields and have full wifi from outdoor omni radios placed strategically about the farms.
    The radios that that provide signal everywhere are made by Ubiquiti (ubnt.com), a company started by former Apple airport engineers. As for wireless in the house and barns I have moved to several of Ubiquiti’s Amplifi Aliens in bridge mode, also set up only by iOS.
    Guess what? The whole mess is controlled by one AirPort Extreme that assigns almost each device a fixed IP address by its mac address.

    0
    January 2, 2021
  6. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    So well said, Gregg — bravo.

    Odd how so many financial talking-heads are asleep at the wheel about this.

    With any company, vision and focus is king. Also the points where most companies begin to fail, yet it makes Apple a phenom.

    0
    January 2, 2021

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