Apple 3.0 exclusive: AMA with Gene Munster (video)

The first in a series of ask-an-expert-anything Zoom calls for Apple 3.0 subscribers. To become a subscriber go to ped30.com and hit “Subscribe.” Apple 3.0 AMA…

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. To access, please login or subscribe

22 Comments

Robert Paul Leitao said:

Thank you to the Apple 3.0 subscribers who attended the special event with Gene Munster. This was a nearly 90-minute Q&A with one of the most well-respected observers of Apple on the planet. The questions were excellent and the answers were amazing. A broad range of topics about Apple were covered. It’s definitely worth the investment of time to watch the event. You will take away from the event a deeper understanding of pretty much all things Apple.

5

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
- James Dean said:
  
  Microsoft has zero experience with chip design, they barely have software experience upon which to sit. Windows 10 is bloatware, loaded with legacy baggage, and is the worst when it comes to slurping up user data unbeknownst to it’s user base. If i did not know any better, they are part and parcel of the NSA, akin to Google and Herr Schmidt.
  
  Wishful thinking, pound sand!
  
  1
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
- Bart Yee said:
  
  @Robert and guest readers – It’s also definitely worth a subscription to PED 3.0 to get rapid access to content and analysis about Apple plus being able to ask questions and discuss relevant topics. For the fractional cost of .80 of an AAPL share, the 1-2 year return on that subscription will be well worth it IMO.
  
  0
  
  December 21, 2020
  Log in to Reply
- Manfred Schwencke said:
  
  Thanks very much to Gene, Robert Paul und Philip for organizing this great event!
  
  1
  
  December 21, 2020
  Log in to Reply
Fred Stein said:

Following up on our Apple Silicon discussion, specifically how it gives Apple an edge vs. Microsoft:

On Friday, 18th, Bloomberg reports, “Microsoft Designing Its Own Chips for Servers, Surface PCs”.

Apple has chips in shipping products. Microsoft has a press release.

5

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
- Robert Stack said:
  
  Microsoft has long been the master of vaporware! These kinds of announcements, IMO, are really designed to prevent people from finally making the switch to Apple. “Oh, if I wait just a little bit longer I’ll have the same speed and low power options when Microsoft goes ARM and I won’t have to learn a new operating system…”
  
  4
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
- Gregg Thurman said:
  
  Microsoft has long been the master of vaporware!
  
  Back in their Gates used to give keynotes at IT conventions. In everyone he held out a vision of the future. There always a half dozen, or more, firms that bought into his vision and developing something that would forward that vision.
  
  Then Gates would examine all their efforts and buy the best, leaving the rest with nothing. It got to a point where a startup’s exit plan was to be bought by MSFT.
  
  3
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
- Robert Paul Leitao said:
  
  Fred: As a major cloud services provider, this decision by Microsoft may have been all but inevitable. It will probably be awhile before Microsoft-designed chips appear in Surface products. In my view, the era of the PC as we have known it for the past few decades is now over.
  
  2
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
  - Jerry Doyle said:
    
    @Robert Paul Leitao: While I hold you in esteem my good man and as an Apple erudite, I must caution that even with the glorious revelation of the new M1 Silicon Chip that your prediction the era of the PC (even as we have known it) is over may be premature. 🙂
    
    0
    
    December 20, 2020
    Log in to Reply
    - Robert Paul Leitao said:
      
      Jerry: I will double down on my comment. The PC era, as we’ve known it for the past 30 years, is over. Far more people have smartphones than own PCs and products such as the iPad, iPhone and Apple Watch are eliminating the need for conventional personal computers. Last fiscal year the Mac line represented about 13% of Apple’s product sales and 10.4% of total revenue.
      
      2
      
      December 20, 2020
      Log in to Reply
Joseph Bland said:

I mistakenly responded to this story in PED’s previous story. I’m going to repost them here. PED, feel free to delete them in the previous story if nobody responds there.

Sorry about that….

0

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
Joseph Bland said:

This is what Gene said in response to my assertion that it could be 5-7 years before Apple reaches net cash neutral…

Buybacks continue – similar pace – $79 B inching down at $5-10 B/qtr – cadence & ability to inch it up is dependent on how business is doing – Analysts predicting 15% up in revenue in ’21 & +5% in ’22 due to more difficult comp – he suspects 10-15% (in ’22) – Growth depends on underlying business – digital transformation has incredible things going on – bodes well for revenue and capital return – Apple is producing so much cash it’s hard to not “inch up” – growth rates will be better than most people think – the buyback and dividend amounts will increase because Apple has inexpensive debt – Apple wants to return cash but it’s hard to do so – Buybacks are an under-appreciated part of the stock – envisions Tim Cook as below the fold with a screwdriver slowly turning the screws so the stock inches higher – it’s hard for Apple to give back stock fast enough and thus get to net cash neutral, so when they report their March quarter we’ll see another increase in buybacks and dividends.

1

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
Joseph Bland said:

I think Apple will increase the amount of the buybacks and dividends, but I’m not convinced they’ll do enough of an increase to substantially increase the pace to the “$5-10 B/qtr cadence” he speaks of. Taking a $5 B/quarter reduction in net cash, which I still think is too high, to take $79 B in cash down to neutral cash vs debt, it would take (79/(5×4=) 4 years. Presently, Apple is buying back about $17.5 B/qtr of their float. If net income increases, as I expect, by 20%, then just to maintain their present rate of drawdown they’d need to increase their “cadence” to (17.5×1.2=) $20 B/qtr. But I can’t remember the last time Apple increased dividends by 20%, although they did increase buybacks dramatically when the tax on repatriated earnings was substantially reduced a couple of years ago.
In addition, Apple is limited in the amount of stock they can buy back per session. It’s a percentage, and I believe it’s around 20-25% of the volume. But I’ve never heard of them buying back that much of the total volume. And if they did, it would, needless to say, tend to drive up the stock price, which in turn means that they’d buy less shares for a given amount.
Bottom line: I think Apple is going to have its hands full just getting to net zero in 5 years. And after that, if Apple keeps growing, the coffers are going to need to be kept at net zero, and all that cash has to go somewhere….

0

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
James Dean said:

Thank you Robert, ditto Gene and Phillip, well done.

1

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
Joseph Bland said:

BTW, and OT, but I just checked out the comparison between AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT on a 5 year basis on Yahoo Finance. Over the last 5 years, GOOGL has gone up 128.08%, MSFT has gone up 303.82%, AMZN has gone up 382.7%, and AAPL has gone up 361.79%. And the clear expectation for continued growth is very much in AAPL’s favor.

Buying and holding AAPL has turned out to be a winning strategy every bit as good as buying and holding any of those companies 5 years back.

4

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
- Robert Paul Leitao said:
  
  Joe: I suggest rerunning your comparisons and adding the dividends received on a per share basis over the past five years. AMZN and GOOG are not dividend paying equities. The total return outcome will favor Apple.
  
  1
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
Michael Goldfeder said:

First of all thank you PED and Robert, for facilitating an outstanding Q and A with Gene Munster. It was a very informative session. He has an amazing insight into Apple, and how the company has prepared itself for further successes moving forward past this pandemic. It was also a pleasure to have everyone on the call submit pinpoint questions for Gene, as opposed to the animus based drivel constantly being asked by the CNBC crowd who seem to just dislike this company.

Everyone on Apple 3.0 has a large position in Apple, and for Gene Munster to take his time and respond to each inquiry with his thoughtful and well articulated answers, just gives me further confidence in my investment decision with Apple as they continue to execute on their business plan.

3

December 20, 2020
Log in to Reply
- Robert Paul Leitao said:
  
  Michael: Thank you for attending yesterday’s special event!
  
  2
  
  December 20, 2020
  Log in to Reply
- Bart Yee said:
  
  @Michael Agreed and ditto! Some may think this is an echo chamber of Apple longs but stock investments should and do require due diligence and research IF one is making their own investment decisions. The more work you put into understanding a company and its business model and execution, the more insight you will have for long term confidence in buying, selling or holding its stock relative to your own financial needs and situation.
  
  Sure, you can follow advice from brokers, talking heads, investment analysts or rely on index funds and mutual fund managers, but remember, their job is to make money off of you, not just for you. IMO, the more you learn and take control of your investments, the better equipped you’ll be in the long run to make wise investment decisions.
  
  0
  
  December 21, 2020
  Log in to Reply
bas flik said:

robert & philip i thx for the invitation. i really enjoyed it. as a bull myself i am also really interested in the more bearish narritives. actually thats what i am doing all day. looking for bearish narritives why not to be an Apple bull. Rod Hall?

0

December 21, 2020
Log in to Reply
Tommo_UK said:

Post 1:

Sadly I missed this event due to the new-variant COVID panic in the UK and subsequent lockdown measures, but I’ve just gone through my archive of old comments I’d posted on AFB years ago (pre-2010) and came across this… I wonder if Gene (who was viewed as something of a demigod back then thanks to his then-contrarian conviction in the future of Apple almost single-mindedly against the Wall Street brigade) remember what year it is from and can solve the puzzle of what $130 then would be today several-splits-later?

Hint: it was after Toni said AAPL would never rise above $78 in 2007 (pre-pre-pre split) and had “too many iPhones in the channel, suggesting sales had been weaker than expected. 13 years later and he stills plays the same record…

0

December 21, 2020
Log in to Reply
- Tommo_UK said:
  
  Post 2:
  
  Comment from Tommo_UK on the old Apple Finance Board:
  
  /quote Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster confessed that in his five years of covering Apple he’s never seen anything like the market’s reaction to these earnings.
  
  “I talked to one of our technical analysts before the call and he told me that the stock was going down to 130 no matter what results Apple posted,” Munster said in a phone interview. “Something bigger is going on in people’s minds. There’s a feeling that stocks need to go back to their 200 day averages as the market corrects itself. This is not a bullish sign for other tech stocks going forward.”
  
  Sounds like it was a total short set-up to me. Thank Oppenheimer for handing it to them. You’d think the company would want to finally fsck these people once and for all, but time after time he plays right into their hands and totally screws Apple investors.
  
  Goodnight.
  
  /endquote
  
  0
  
  December 21, 2020
  Log in to Reply

Philip Elmer‑DeWitt

Apple 3.0 exclusive: AMA with Gene Munster (video)

22 Comments

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Member Login

RECENT COMMENTS

Apple 3.0 Archives

Apple 2.0 Archives

Blog Roll