"We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple... the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014." — Analyst Daniel Ives
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:
With Apple launching its highly anticipated iPhone 12 5G lineup of smartphones last week, our Wedbush TMT team has been conducting our Asia supply chain checks over the last few days to gauge demand trends. The initial reads are very bullish and give us incremental confidence in our supercycle thesis on iPhone 12. We now believe the supply chain is anticipating 80 million iPhone 12's for the initial launch period with potentially a stretch goal in the mid 80's for units. To put this in context, heading into last week we were anticipating 75 million units as the line in the sand and roughly a month ago this number was in the 65 million to 70 million range. We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.
Maintains Outperform rating and (Street-high) $150 price target.
My take: These launch estimates have become convention wisdom.
Can’t you hear that whistle scream, the mighty engines roar?
I suspect that once we have the earnings call at the end of the month and once the election is behind us then we are going to see Apple start a climb in stock price to $150 by the end of Q2 2021 when Tim & Luca report earnings for that period, if we don’t see $150 before they report Q2 results.
I know this because that is what I am doing.
Sure this year might be seeing a big boost from iPhone X owners who brought a boost to Apple that many a talking head were oblivious to, many of whom were upgrading from 6+. Or all of these analysts are boosting the numbers to pump the stock and “sell/exploit the news” to sell and sell hard, then scoop up more shares at the low in some heavy options trading 3/6/9 months out as the stock inevitably recovers.
It’s happened before, it’ll happen again.
And a reminder, there will never be a supercycle like iPhone 6/6+ as there are no massively untapped markets suddenly being entered into plus a new form factor. India still isn’t ready for prime time from why I’ve seen.
“We’re gratified by the overwhelming response from our customers.”
Recycled response from 2016 iPhone SE intro modded for today:
“We’re working hard to get the iPhone 12’s into the hands of every customer who wants one, as quickly as possible,” Cook said on the call.
Let All the analysts provide free publicity for the huge demand for iPhone 12s.
Let the financial analysts twist some more in the wind and give us their estimates. Meanwhile Apple keeps doing what they do best, aspire to be the best and let the financial results and rewards become self evident.