"We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple... the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014." — Analyst Daniel Ives
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:
With Apple launching its highly anticipated iPhone 12 5G lineup of smartphones last week, our Wedbush TMT team has been conducting our Asia supply chain checks over the last few days to gauge demand trends. The initial reads are very bullish and give us incremental confidence in our supercycle thesis on iPhone 12. We now believe the supply chain is anticipating 80 million iPhone 12's for the initial launch period with potentially a stretch goal in the mid 80's for units. To put this in context, heading into last week we were anticipating 75 million units as the line in the sand and roughly a month ago this number was in the 65 million to 70 million range. We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.
Maintains Outperform rating and (Street-high) $150 price target.
My take: These launch estimates have become convention wisdom.