From a note to clients by analyst Amit Daryanani that landed on my desktop Sunday:
AAPL is coming off its first double-digit revenue growth quarter since 2018 and many of the tailwinds that enabled a robust beat in the June-qtr should have sustained through the Sept-qtr. The delayed iPhone launch makes it unlikely Apple will report y/y growth this quarter (we are modeling -2%), but we still see upside to consensus numbers.
Macbook and iPad likely sustained high demand through the quarter driven by work/learn from home trends. Notably, PC/Tablet market forecasts have become more positive over the past 8 weeks, which should help sustain strong Mac/iPad growth. App Store has also been very strong with revenue up 25% in the Sept-qtr, but there will likely be some negative offsets with AppleCare.
We expect Dec-qtr momentum to be driven by the iPhone launch (Oct 13) and would look for both revenue and margin implications from the new launches.
Net/Net: Apple is well positioned to deliver upside to Sept-qtr results and we expect focus to remain on FY21 commentary given expectations for a very strong 5G iPhone cycle.
Maintains Outperform rating and $135 target.
My take: Once again, it’s all about the guidance.
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