J.P. Morgan: What to expect from Apple’s fall product launches

Plus, a handy checklist of which companies in Apple’s supply chain will benefit from which products.

The bullet points from a note to clients by analyst Samik Chatterjee that landed on my desktop Monday:

  • Blood oxygen sensor in high-end Apple Watch, cheaper Lite version likely: We expect 10-12M units for Apple Watch 6 and 6-8M units for Watch SE/Lite.
  • Side fingerprint on iPad: We suspect the new iPad will move fingerprint to the edge and allow edge-to-edge screen size of 10.8″ from 10.5″.
  • The new heart of Mac: Apple is likely to launch a New Mac using in-house Apple Silicon in late 2020, at cheaper price points. We assume 2-3M units in the first batch.
  • Price is key for iPhone: We assume the starting price to be US$699 given sell-through volume benefits from iPhone 11 and SE pricing. We forecast 70-75m for new iPhone 12 in 2H20.
  • AirPods bundle rate to rise as EarPods bundle disappears in new iPhones: The sell-through depends on any promotion of AirPods as iPhone will not provide EarPods bundled in the box this time. However, we think the refresh of new AirPods is for 2021, instead of 2H20.
  • AirTag and Stereo headphone: AirTag is a Bluetooth device using UWB technology and could be used to attach to various items for tracking purpose. The shipment is around 5m based on our forecast. For Stereo headphone, it should target the high-end segment and the unit shipment is around 200 thousands.
  • Stock implications: We sense that a strong Apple product lineup should revive the positive sentiment on supply chain. In the food chain, we believe the beneficiaries are Hon Hai and Luxshare for assembly parts. And as for components, we are positive on TSMC, USI and Speed Tech as the three companies have a presence across most product lines. For Apple Watch, the more IR LED and sensor for blood oxygen is positive for Epistar (NC) and OPTOTECH (NC). New iPhone launch should benefit Murata and Alps, but negatively impact Minebia and Nitto due to a sharp decline in LCD volume (link to JPM Japan tech team note on new iPhone implications).

Cue the supplier checklist:

apple jpmorgan fall products

Click to enlarge.

My take: Good supply chain reporting, although this would have been more useful if Chatterjee had made a clear distinction between products he expects tomorrow, products he expects next month and products—like those 5 million AirTags—for which he’s not prepared to hazard a guess. No new AirPods until next year, if true, would be news.

5 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    Nice call out of TSMC.

    Side note: NVIDIA acquires ARM for $40B. That’s a rough proxy for the value of Apple’s silicon design IP, which carries a value of $0 on their balance sheet. Yet another hidden asset.

    2
    September 14, 2020
  2. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    My take?

    While being pricier than desired, Tags will initially sell out.

    Apple’s no fool. The ecosystem beat goes on.

    1
    September 14, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      @Kirk Currently, Tile Mates run about $25 each, and they also have pricier versions with subscriptions up to about $50. It is unknown where Apple plans to price Apple AirTags (TM), but IMO it would be killer at $28-$40 each, or $25 with annual subscription costs, or bundles of 5 for $100 with subscription. If they price above Tile, then can’t say they are trying to undercut the competition.

      Any way you look at it, they should be a big hit. Would it be too gaudy or presumptuous if they were shaped like an Apple logo or something less noticeable, and available in various colors besides white?

      0
      September 14, 2020
      • Kirk DeBernardi said:
        Shaped like the Apple logo?

        Cute and cheeky?

        Remember the thousand “nos” to finally arrive at something worthwhile?

        Uh…no.

        Now colors…hmmm.

        0
        September 15, 2020
  3. Dan Scropos said:
    200,000 for over the ear Apple branded headphones? They’ll sell 5 times that amount in the holiday quarter.

    AirPods getting pushed into the first CY quarter would make sense, if the headphones come to fruition.

    1
    September 14, 2020

Leave a Reply