Battle of the Apple price targets, updated

How do the 12-month targets of 63 Apple 3.0 subscribers stack up against 33 Wall Street professionals? The final chart.

After I posted a pair of amateur bell curves from preliminary data last week, I had this exchange with friend-of-the-blog Daniel Tello:

@dtellom: @philiped You should bin the targets in $20 buckets to see the distribution, not force a Gaussian which likely is likely off.

@philiped: @dtellom you lost me at gaussian. if i send the data, can you draw the graph?

I sent Tello final numbers at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and at precisely 9:01 p.m. he sent back this:

Apple targets buckets

Thanks Dan!

A few observations:

  • The most crowded “bucket” among the friends of the blog (up to $340) is $20 below that of the Wall Street analysts (up to $360). This is not because the FOBs are more bearish than the professionals; it’s because they are more au courant. Only 15 of the 33 pros have bothered to update their Apple price targets since January.
  • The second most popular bucket, up to $440, is territory into which no Wall Street type dares tread.
  • The professionals, who do this for a living, are relatively tightly grouped between $230 and $380. The subscribers, who do this for fun (and a shot at $100 prize), are all over the place, from a trollish $100 to a champagne-popping $450.

Thanks all for playing the game. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark in a year. Meanwhile, stay safe.

See also:


  1. David Emery said:
    Thanks, Daniel. That’s a very good way to look at these two sets of data.

    April 2, 2020
  2. Jonny Tilney said:
    Closest? Hopefully someone will have nailed it right on the button..!

    April 2, 2020
  3. Mordechai Beizer said:
    Comparing FOBs to Pros is not quite right. Given that each guess could be claimed by only one FOB, part of the decision is what gives me better odds of winning – a wider range outside the main cluster or a tightly constrained range. But it’s fun anyhow. The winner will of course claim to have done a highly detailed and sophisticated analysis which yielded his or her brilliant selection.

    April 2, 2020
  4. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    Of course, I will, Mordechai LOL
    Here’s to champagne wishes & caviar dreams 🙂

    April 2, 2020

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