How do the 12-month targets of 63 Apple 3.0 subscribers stack up against 33 Wall Street professionals? The final chart.
After I posted a pair of amateur bell curves from preliminary data last week, I had this exchange with friend-of-the-blog Daniel Tello:
@dtellom: @philiped You should bin the targets in $20 buckets to see the distribution, not force a Gaussian which likely is likely off.
@philiped: @dtellom you lost me at gaussian. if i send the data, can you draw the graph?
I sent Tello final numbers at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and at precisely 9:01 p.m. he sent back this:
A few observations:
- The most crowded “bucket” among the friends of the blog (up to $340) is $20 below that of the Wall Street analysts (up to $360). This is not because the FOBs are more bearish than the professionals; it’s because they are more au courant. Only 15 of the 33 pros have bothered to update their Apple price targets since January.
- The second most popular bucket, up to $440, is territory into which no Wall Street type dares tread.
- The professionals, who do this for a living, are relatively tightly grouped between $230 and $380. The subscribers, who do this for fun (and a shot at $100 prize), are all over the place, from a trollish $100 to a champagne-popping $450.
Thanks all for playing the game. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark in a year. Meanwhile, stay safe.