Trump kills Apple’s bull run

Global financial markets turned red overnight after the Trump-ordered assassination of Qassem Soleimani.

From Bloomberg: “U.S. Stock Futures Fall After Airstrike Kills Iranian Commander

U.S. stock-index futures fell after an American airstrike in Iraq killed a top Iranian commander.

S&P 500 Index futures contracts expiring in March were down 1.1% as of 10:19 a.m. in London after the attack that killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts and those on the Nasdaq 100 also fell.

 Oil spiked, with futures in New York and London surging 4% or more, as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe retaliation” after the death of one of his country’s top commanders. Gold also surged. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.7%.

S&P 500 Index futures contracts expiring in March were down 1.1% as of 10:19 a.m. in London after the attack that killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts and those on the Nasdaq 100 also fell.

“The ‘severe retaliation’ aspect is possibly what is scaring the markets as it could mean that there will be a counter-attack versus American diplomats,” said Alberto Tocchio, chief investment officer at Colombo Wealth in Lugano, Switzerland. “Markets could use this excuse to take some profits as sentiment and positioning are possibly too high.”

My take: If war breaks out, profit-taking from the Dow’s star performer of 2019 may be the least of our problems.

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18 Comments

  1. Mordechai Beizer said:
    No, Trump has a murderous bad guy killed. Sure markets are panicky, they always are. Enjoy the buying opportunity if it arises.

    4
    January 3, 2020
  2. David Emery said:
    I think there’s a good chance AAPL actually does relatively well today (I’m writing this at 8:30 Eastern). If you believe there won’t be a full-scale war, but just an ‘escalation of tensions’, then Apple’s performance -relative to the rest of the Dow- looks like it will continue. Apple would be relatively unfazed by rises in oil prices around the rest of the world, unless that drives China into recession.

    I suspect institutional investors who missed AAPL’s rise the last 3 months would see any drop today as a buying opportunity.

    5
    January 3, 2020
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    My take: If war breaks out, profit-taking from the Dow’s star performer of 2019 may be the least of our problems.

    Trump just demonstrated that not only do we know where they are, but that we have the will to take them out.

    Khomeini isn’t stupid. Armed with that knowledge he isn’t going to put more of his command staff at risk. That means demonstrations like we just had in Iraq are unlikely to happen again.

    Walk softly and carry a big stick.

    2
    January 3, 2020
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Trump kills Apple’s bull run

    No, Khomeini and Soleimani killed AAPL’s Bull run.

    Could it be possible that North Korea saw this disportionate
    reaction? I doubt we’ll see anything more dangerous than rhetoric coming out of North Korea in the future.

    2
    January 3, 2020
  5. Jerry Doyle said:
    Geopolitical events affect all equities in some form or fashion. This particular geo-political incident doesn’t trouble me relative to its effects on Apple. The fundamentals serving as Apple’s basis of support driving its stock price higher over the past weeks, remain. There has been a mindset sea-change amongst WS analysts in how they view Apple. That mindset already is imprinted indelibly to favor the stock price continued climb, regardless of yesterday’s events.

    Also, Apple’s stock price was rising as if it were “unrestrained.” Naysayers most likely were ready to pounce on the stock touting how its price was getting far ahead of itself. Of course, we know otherwise. It probably is a silver lining that we have this temporary pause so those who are being shocked by Apple’s exceptional performance can catch their breath. Apple stock price will pick-up its rising pace quickly. I am ready to embrace such a continuation following Tim C and Luca Maestri’s 1Q call relative to 1Q’s performance and relative to forward guidance.

    0
    January 3, 2020

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