What to expect from Apple’s Q4 results and Q1 guidance

Four versions of the consensus, hot off the analysts’ spreadsheets.

The September quarter’s results are largely baked in. Next Wednesday, the Street’s eyes will be on the Apple’s guidance for the Christmas quarter.

apple consensus Q4 2019

 

Guide to the numbers:

  • Visible Alpha: Gathered by a consortium of banks for their internal use and for selected clients.
  • Estimize: Crowd-sourced site that invites anonymous estimates.
  • Thomson Reuters: Average used by most public sites (e.g. Yahoo Finance).
  • Apple 3.0: This site’s mix of pros and independents has out-performed Thomson Reuters for at least 11 quarters in a row. Plus, it names names (see Best and Worst

We’ll find out whose consensus was closest to the mark when Apple offers its fiscal Q4 results and Q1 2020 guidance after the markets close Wednesday, Oct. 30. I’ll be monitoring the earnings call with analysts and you can too. Click here for instructions.

13 Comments

  1. T R said:
    Typo? I believe Apple’s guide is $61 billion to $64 billion (not $60-$62).

    1
    October 25, 2019
  2. “I believe Apple’s guide is $61 billion to $64 billion (not $60-$62).”

    Yikes. Right you are. Wrong quarter. Fixed.

    1
    October 25, 2019
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Luca Maestri is my CFO God. Under his supervision Apple’s performance against guidance has been very consistent.

    Historically (average of prior 5 years) Apple’s FQ4 revenue results amounted to the Low of Revenue Guidance range plus 114.54% of the gap between the High/Low revenue range.

    For this quarter that would look like this:
    Low of Revenue range – $61 Billion
    Gap between High and Low of range – $3 Billion
    $3 Billion X 114.54% – $4.436 Billion

    Implied FQ4 Revenue based on Guidance and historical performance – $64.436 Billion

    Given WS’s firm belief that iPhone 11s are selling better than they expected, I believe that Apple will report FQ4 Revenue much closer to $64.436 Billion than the average of the above consensus’ ($63.1 Billion), so much so that my Revenue expectation is $64.436 Billion.

    It follows then that, in consideration of continued better than expected iPhone 11 sales, new revenue from Services (and in my opinion), FQ1/20 Revenue will be $91.925 Billion with Apple guiding $88.0 Billion to $91.0 Billion.

    Best of luck to all.

    2
    October 25, 2019
  4. Paul Chou said:
    Phil – Did you have Neil Cybart’s forecast in Apple 3.0 group? He was forecasting 64.4b for Q4 and 91b for Q1. I am just surprised that hasn’t skewed the average that much higher…

    If it is in, my guess is that his # is the lone outlier which got “averaged down” by other analysts in that group.

    1
    October 25, 2019
      • Paul Chou said:
        Thanks. What about for Q1? I am curious to see the distribution…

        0
        October 25, 2019
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    Some very large trades in after-hours (not “at-the-Close” trades) extending Apple’s rally.

    1
    October 25, 2019
  6. John Konopka said:
    Can someone explain this to me?

    For Q4 2019 the consensus is flat or slightly increasing revenue but uniformly decreasing EPS. This in spite of few shares outstanding.

    On the other hand, for Q1 2020 the forecast is for EPS growth exceeding revenue growth. Am I missing something?

    AppleInsider reports that Cowen is forecasting a $90B Q1 2020.
    https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/10/25/services-continued-iphone-demand-will-drive-90-billion-holiday-quarter

    1
    October 25, 2019
  7. Michael Thompson said:
    Apple had better forecast 1st quarter 2020 revenue of more than $90 billion or we will be giving a lot of the gains back next Thursday.

    Any revenue forecast that doesn’t surpass the 2018 1st quarter record of $88 billion will not be met well by the market that had has been bidding Apple up.

    1
    October 25, 2019
  8. Gregg Thurman said:
    Monday pop?

    SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a phone call with U.S. trade officials as both countries confirmed technical consultations on some parts of a trade agreement were basically completed, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Saturday.

    0
    October 26, 2019
  9. victor castroll said:

    ps – still here la jolla

    1
    October 27, 2019

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