Four versions of the consensus, hot off the analysts’ spreadsheets.
The September quarter’s results are largely baked in. Next Wednesday, the Street’s eyes will be on the Apple’s guidance for the Christmas quarter.
Guide to the numbers:
- Visible Alpha: Gathered by a consortium of banks for their internal use and for selected clients.
- Estimize: Crowd-sourced site that invites anonymous estimates.
- Thomson Reuters: Average used by most public sites (e.g. Yahoo Finance).
- Apple 3.0: This site’s mix of pros and independents has out-performed Thomson Reuters for at least 11 quarters in a row. Plus, it names names (see Best and Worst
We’ll find out whose consensus was closest to the mark when Apple offers its fiscal Q4 results and Q1 2020 guidance after the markets close Wednesday, Oct. 30. I’ll be monitoring the earnings call with analysts and you can too. Click here for instructions.
Typo? I believe Apple’s guide is $61 billion to $64 billion (not $60-$62).
“I believe Apple’s guide is $61 billion to $64 billion (not $60-$62).”
Yikes. Right you are. Wrong quarter. Fixed.
Luca Maestri is my CFO God. Under his supervision Apple’s performance against guidance has been very consistent.
Historically (average of prior 5 years) Apple’s FQ4 revenue results amounted to the Low of Revenue Guidance range plus 114.54% of the gap between the High/Low revenue range.
For this quarter that would look like this:
Low of Revenue range – $61 Billion
Gap between High and Low of range – $3 Billion
$3 Billion X 114.54% – $4.436 Billion
Implied FQ4 Revenue based on Guidance and historical performance – $64.436 Billion
Given WS’s firm belief that iPhone 11s are selling better than they expected, I believe that Apple will report FQ4 Revenue much closer to $64.436 Billion than the average of the above consensus’ ($63.1 Billion), so much so that my Revenue expectation is $64.436 Billion.
It follows then that, in consideration of continued better than expected iPhone 11 sales, new revenue from Services (and in my opinion), FQ1/20 Revenue will be $91.925 Billion with Apple guiding $88.0 Billion to $91.0 Billion.
Best of luck to all.
Phil – Did you have Neil Cybart’s forecast in Apple 3.0 group? He was forecasting 64.4b for Q4 and 91b for Q1. I am just surprised that hasn’t skewed the average that much higher…
If it is in, my guess is that his # is the lone outlier which got “averaged down” by other analysts in that group.
Neil is In there. Michel Content, at 64.9, is higher. It’s the pros who brought it down.
Thanks. What about for Q1? I am curious to see the distribution…
Some very large trades in after-hours (not “at-the-Close” trades) extending Apple’s rally.
Are the volumes listed here in “1000 shares”? https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/after-hours
Can someone explain this to me?
For Q4 2019 the consensus is flat or slightly increasing revenue but uniformly decreasing EPS. This in spite of few shares outstanding.
On the other hand, for Q1 2020 the forecast is for EPS growth exceeding revenue growth. Am I missing something?
AppleInsider reports that Cowen is forecasting a $90B Q1 2020.
https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/10/25/services-continued-iphone-demand-will-drive-90-billion-holiday-quarter
@ John:
First, let’s clarify that Q4 and Q1 are fiscal year quarters.
But your point is a good one: Why the low EPS for fy Q4? Probably because it’s an average of independents and “professionals”, and the pro’s dragged the average way down.
Apple had better forecast 1st quarter 2020 revenue of more than $90 billion or we will be giving a lot of the gains back next Thursday.
Any revenue forecast that doesn’t surpass the 2018 1st quarter record of $88 billion will not be met well by the market that had has been bidding Apple up.
Monday pop?
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a phone call with U.S. trade officials as both countries confirmed technical consultations on some parts of a trade agreement were basically completed, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Saturday.
ps – still here la jolla