UBS: Apple’s latest iPhone launch appears strong

But expectations were low and the supplies modest, according to analyst Timothy Arcuri.

From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Thursday:

Though we still see more of a general bias to the downside for iPhone, our spot checks and data from Evidence Lab do not suggest the type of short-falls in sales that we saw last year. This is in part due to more modest expectations from Apple and supply chain.

UBS Evidence Lab availability data five days after the launch actually suggests longer wait times for iPhone 11/Pro relative to last year’s iPhone XR/Xs, while supply is much more modest this year for the LCD model in particular (iPhone 11) despite $50 lower ASP.

We continue to model 2H iPhone shipments down 5.3%, slightly worse than Street 4.4%. From a supply perspective, our recent meetings with companies in Asia (HERE) still suggest build plans could be biased lower than our original 68MM estimate, but again, not something that we feel investors will “sell” given what should be a big 2020 on a number of fronts.

Maintains Buy rating and $235 price target.

My take: Much depends, if you’re watching iPhone sales, on the modesty of those supplies.

Cue the U.S. chart:

apple iphone launch strong


  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    And still they continue to focus on iPhone as the principal driver of AAPL.

    Cramer is correct. WS should replace all Apple/AAPL analysts with analysts covering Clorox, General Foods, General Mills, etc.

    September 26, 2019

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