From “iPhone 11 demand better than expectations, stronger interest for new color options” posted Sunday on 9to5Mac:
Respected Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report late on Sunday that said he believes iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro order demand is ahead of expectations, following the launch of preorders on Friday.
Basing his predictions largely off of Apple’s online shipping estimates, Kuo points out strong demand for the new colors: the midnight green iPhone 11 Pro, and the green and purple iPhone 11 models. He also warns that production problems of the glass for the midnight green phone means availability of that model is currently constrained.
Given the positive early signs, TF Securities is raising its estimate for new iPhone shipments in 2019 to 70-75 million units, up from its previous 65-70 million estimate.
My take: If you’re counting unit sales, a 5-million shift from this guy means a lot.
See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?
From AppleInsider:
“TF International Securities has increased its forecast of iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro in calendar year 2019 alone to between 70 million and 75 million units”
In Q4 fy ‘17 and Q1 fy ‘18, the last time we got definitive numbers for those quarters, total iPhones sold came to 123.993 M.
So Kuo’s estimate of 70 – 75 million units is just under the average since iPhone 6 launch, ergo Kuo’s estimate includes ALL iPhones sold not just iPhone 11 variants. This is also consistent with the widespread belief that iPhone unit sales have flattened to decline since iPhone 6.
Interestingly, iPhone revenue peaked in FQ1/2018 at $61,576,000, about 13% above peak iPhone units sold in FQ1/2017.
I suspect that this year’s iPhone offerings will cause iPhone revenue to exceed last year’s record revenue, despite the Apple TV+ freebie offering. This due to the Apple TV+ offer, the greatly enhanced camera capabilities, massively extended battery life, and the new lower price of the iPhone 11 (nee iPhone XR).
Throw in always-on Apple Watch Series 5, Mac Pro, iPad, and Services growth, and I’m seeing record FQ1 revenue (6% – 7% YoY?) being reported in January.
And my estimates, such as they are, indicate that you may also be correct in revenue estimates. I’m showing a Q4 fy ‘19 return in iPhone revenue to about that of last year (~$37B) and about $60 B for iPhone revenue for Q1 fy ‘20. For overall revenue, I’m projecting a new all-time high of $67 B for this quarter and a new all-time high for next quarter well exceeding $90 B.
This is all based on graphs and “guesstimates”, and is presuming no black swans, so not something people should count on. Like throwing darts blindfolded….
From CNBC:
“After rallying nearly 40% this year, Apple could be on the verge of a major breakout. Piper Jaffray chief market technician Craig Johnson says the foundation for another massive move higher is forming.
“Over the last couple years, this has been a pretty big consolidation pattern that has been forming, and that’s typically a bullish type setup here in the charts. From my perspective, it looks like the stock is setting itself up for another leg higher,” Johnson said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
“When you measure the height of that consolidation, I can see the stock move up toward $270 to $285,” he added.”
I was just literally thinking along the same lines (that is, looking at the general direction of the stock over the last several years) when I came across the story. To me, that explains a lot about the price action today. Well, that and the bullish interpretation of the new iPhone 11 backorder numbers.