Three new iPhones before the end of the quarter is materially better than last year, says analyst Amit Daryanani.
From "Could the iPhone 11 Surprise?" a note to clients Saturday that landed on my desktop Sunday:
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW: We think there is inherent upside to Sept-qtr EPS given AAPL isn’t staggering their launches but announcing all the three products simultaneously. This we think will have a positive impact to revenues and EPS in the sept-qtr, though depending on the reception of these products it may be more of a pulling in of revenues from Dec-qtr. We think AAPL will likely be more aggressive with their trade in programs to further incentivize customers to purchase the new phones. In addition, we see the pricing of the iPhone 11 (next gen iPhone XR) as fairly attractive at $699 that could spur demand on the low-end.
Net/net: we are raising our Sept-qtr and beyond estimates modestly to reflect the change in product launch timing and we see room for upside to current street numbers esp. for Sept-qtr. Fundamentally, AAPL remains a core large cap tech holding and we see the stock continuing to re-rate higher given multiple tailwinds on the services side...
Key levers for upside include: a) services growing double-digits with potential acceleration given new revenue streams, b) gross margins inflecting higher for the remainder of the year given easing commodity costs and better leverage, c) cap allocation enables 2-4% share reduction, and d) non iPhone hardware sales inflect higher and have better margins.
Maintains Outperform, raises price target to $247 from $238.
My take: Evercore, alas, does not have as much sway on the Street as Goldman Sachs.