Wedbush: Apple has 75 million iPhone 11s ready for Sept. launch

Analyst Daniel Ives sees pent-up demand, with as many as 300 million iPhones ready to be replaced.

From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Tuesday:

Next week on Tuesday, September 10th at its HQ in Cupertino Apple is set to unveil its trifecta of iPhone 11s which represent the next step in the company’s ability to put a fence around its unparalleled consumer installed base.

    • With roughly 1/3 of the company’s 900 million active iPhones globally currently in a “window of an upgrade opportunity” over the next 12 to 18 months Cook & Co. recognize this will be a crucial product cycle on the horizon that we believe could translate into roughly 180 million iPhone units sold in FY20.
    • Based on our recent Asia checks, we believe Apple’s supply chain is planning on 75 million units for the initial iPhone 11 launch period, which is a slight uptick vs. its prior iPhone cycle last fall.
    • The main event of next week’s launch will be the flagship iPhone 11 Pro and the iPhone 11 Pro Max as these smartphones represent the crux of improvements coming in this year’s releases. Expected price points look to be $749 for the base iPhone, $999 for the iPhone 11 Pro, and $1,099 for the iPhone Pro Max.
    • The new triple camera lens technology in iPhone 11 Pro that will work in unison for users taking pictures, along with some next generation AI capabilities built into this year’s iPhones will be the key specs showcased in our opinion.
    • While China remains a wild card, we are bullish into Apple’s future heading into FY20 and beyond.

Maintains Outperform rating and $245 price target. 

My take: Kudos to Ives for cleaning up his prose style. Hardly a mixed metaphor in the note, until we hit this pothole:

The installed base of Apple remains the golden jewel and key to the valuation and our bullish thesis with iPhone 11 representing a key opportunity to catalyze these consumers into their next iPhone.

My eyes read “catalyze,” my mind saw “catapult.” Perhaps I’ve read too many Wedbush notes.


  1. Fred Stein said:
    triple camera lens – yes!

    My eyes see:
    Upgrades at the lower end of the 900 million; And upgrades at the high-end for those who must have this amazing camera system.

    Upgrades by analysts who have to give up the ‘can’t innovate’, ‘commoditization of hardware’, etc. nonsense. Dare I say reverse capitulation?

    September 3, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      By and large the “lower” end will upgrade to a newer, albeit, used/refurbished iPhone.

      Cameras aren’t that important to them, nor is Face ID. My sister (I know, sample of one), for example, would not have recently upgraded her 6S if the battery didn’t need replacing for a third time. She bought an iPhone XS because she rarely buys anything used.

      September 3, 2019
  2. Adam Foster said:
    Fred: That would be me passing on my one year old XS max to a family member!
    “And upgrades at the high-end for those who must have this amazing camera system”

    September 3, 2019
  3. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Positive commentary. But the price target remains a bit low. It’s less than 5% above the all-time high and 52-week high set last October. There’s little doubt Apple will deliver attractive and compelling iPhone handset options this year and the company will most likely deliver 5G handsets next model year. Meanwhile, we’re just weeks away from the debut of the gaming subscription service and Apple’s streaming entertainment content service.

    As interest rates fall the current dividend yield is about 1.5% on a rapidly diminishing share count and ahead of what may be a very strong two-year cycle of iPhone innovation matched with the debut of new services.

    There’s a lot to like here and a lot to support a higher price target.

    September 3, 2019

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