3 years agoApple’s short-term moving average just crossed its long-term moving average.
Click to enlarge.
Cue the video:
Apple is about to enter a death cross, and it could foreshadow trouble from CNBC.
My take: I don’t know much about technical analysis, but I’m wearing garlic, just in case.
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when i got here really doesn’t matter. but as you point, it was about 15% ago. using the leverage that i use, it’s a 10 bagger.
i tried, and for some reason, will continue to provide an alternative look at aapl from the eyes of a pro. this should have provided tremendous value add (considering it was free), for those that listen. ill continue to contribute. until i won’t.
happy holidays
TA didn’t hike the interest rates, shutdown the government, and elect an incompetent and corrupt POTUS.
I’m very serious when I say that our enemies want to sow division. And that can be division between Apple supporters as well. Fortunately, we are free to choose another path, which I suggest is the very best way to stick it to our enemies, even if it will take a while.
And you are free to define “enemy” in whatever way you choose, so long as it isn’t those also working to avoid further division.
By their deeds ye shall know them. Are they sowing division? Then that’s the enemy. ‘Nuff said.
I can’t wait for Zaky to call another bottom and getting into a pissing contest with Doug Kass.
Saturday Night Live has never been this funny.
As to what constitutes the iceberg, at bottom it’s selfishness and greed, with a fair bit of fear-mongering and FUD thrown in for good measure.
This sinking of the Titanic is related to what Jeff F points out above. Difference is, Jeff points at specific causes. Nothing wrong with that.
this is about aapl.
as for what i’d do (and doing), sto jan 2021 120p for $10 effectively forcing you to buy aapl between now and jan 2021 for $110. i wish that’ll happen but it won’t. so, ill just collect $10 of free money.
as far as how low can this go? i haven’t had a chance to check yet but i did notice az was talking about $118 and that’s certainly possible. also, a 50% retrqcement of the high is $116.50 so it’s certainly possible.
my trades right now are selling puts to open across the board.
now remind me, why am i supposed to care?
let’s change your nickname to sanctimonious joe
Seriously though, people shouldn’t invest any meaningful amount in a stock they don’t have a lot of confidence in. Investing 101. I consider it a bullish sign that you’re investing in AAPL now, per your latest comment in this thread.
Possibly, Cook and Maestri believe AAPL hasn’t quite reached bottom yet. They’re paid to do what’s best for Apple. AAPL has a life of its own and, for reasons other than the performance of Apple, the share price is tanking as is the price of the majority of other stocks right now.
Let’s be careful what we wish for. A sudden spike in AAPL share price could trigger a massive selloff as people try to capture whatever profit they can as they jump ship.
There are three limits that I know of on Apple buying back Apple, but I can’t speak authoritatively about when they cut in or out. The first, as you say, is their quiet period, and when it actually starts and stops has never been perfectly clear to me. I assume it’s about a month long, but I’d love full clarification on that.
The second is their inability to buy in the post/pre-market.
The third concerns how many shares Apple can buy during any one session, which I’ve been told is limited to 20%. That obviouzly impacts the issue of how much they can buy before they hit their quiet period.
My general assessment of Apple is that it is, fiscally speaking, a very conservative company. I don’t believe they were buying anywhere close to their allotted 20%/session. But I sincerely hope that changed a few weeks back. If the volume today, for example, hit 100 M shares, they would be able to buy back 20 M shares in a single day.
OTOH, we really don’t know how long this will last or how low AAPL will go, so there’s something to the idea of keeping their powder dry. I no longer second guess Apple, because they are better at this than I will ever be.
As with many old saws on Wall Street, there is a little bit of truth, and some outright untruth, to this idea.
Here’s the truth: There is no federally mandated blackout period. And even when companies have themselves adopted blackout periods, they can get around them.
For starters, most companies have regular buyback plans. These plans extend to the company, but also to senior executives.
The SEC established rules governing the conditions under which companies can buy back stock: They cannot do so at the end of the trading day (in the last 10 minutes), they have to use a single broker for the trades, they have to buy shares at the prevailing market price, and they can’t be more than 25 percent of the average trading volume over the previous four weeks.
In addition, company executives may have access to inside information, particularly in the period when they are gathering corporate financial information immediately before an earnings report. Most publicly traded companies have established blackout periods that typically restrict trading in shares just prior to the quarter end and immediately after the company reports.
There is no mandated period, but Raymond James has noted that it is typically two weeks prior to the end of the quarter through 48 hours after earnings are released.
For a company like J.P. Morgan Chase, which reports Friday, that would mean a roughly four-week blackout period.
Does this mean J.P. Morgan could not have bought back shares for the last four weeks? No, it doesn’t.
Under a separate SEC rule, companies can do a share repurchase program even during a blackout period. This separate rule (it’s called Rule 10b5-1) permits trading during the blackout period providing the companies have set up a plan to buy back stock on a regular, defined basis. The price (minimum and maximum) and amount of shares that are being bought must be specified. If they do this, they are afforded a “safe harbor” against any insider trading accusations.
In other words, a company — and its executives — can buy back shares during a blackout period, providing they are doing so according to a predefined plan.
Unfortunately, the SEC does not mandate that companies disclose when they are using this rule, so it makes it difficult to determine who is doing what.
Average volume right now is about 40 M shares. So Apple can buy back only about 10 M shares/day. There’s only about 4 trading days left in 2018 (if that), so figure a maximum of 40 M shares.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/04/11/rumor-buyback-blackouts-mean-weak-stocks-fact-not-really.html
one. and i’m in the holiday spirit.
enjoy the holidays and i hope you sold some puts or backed up the truck here.
i did.
i’ll play.
let me know of your closest apple store if you’ve got time for a channel check this weekend
we need about 20 stores
I was there today and it was absolutely packed. iPads seemed to be the big winner.
Best I can do is drop by the Arden Fair Mall on Monday as I drive by. Assuming I can find a place to park….
we’re 17 stores short
Since 2010, when I started tracking Apple’s performance against management’s guidance, Apple has never failed to meet the low of revenue guidance. That’s the point of guiding a range.
When Anderson was CFO management would typically beat revenue guidance by 15% – 20%.
Oppenheimer guided much closer beating revenue guidance by about 5%.
Maestri is the most conservative of the three, guiding (on average) low of range revenue to within 3.42% of actual performance, and high of range revenue to within -.56% of actual performance. Another measure of Maestri’s guidance accuracy is the amount of the range that Apple actually achieves. That amount is 88.81% of the high/low range gap.
If we use those averages we get an actual revenue estimate between $92.044 Billion and $92.591 Billion. The high/low range gap that Apple achieves indicates actual revenue of $92.552 Billion.
So we have $92.044 Billion on the low end, $92.552 Billion range achievement and $92.591 on the high end. Keep in mind that these calculations are based on averages.
With 13 quarters under his belt, we have a good sample of how Maestri guides relative to performance. Like I’ve said before, I trust Maestri’s guidance over any analyst estimate.
Because I expect WS narrative re: iPhone XS/XS Max/Xr sales to be overly conservative my revenue estimate is $92.874 Billion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2000/09/28/technology/apple-issues-earnings-warning.html
https://money.cnn.com/2000/09/29/markets/techwrap/
And just to put these numbers in perspective, the most revenue Apple has ever made in a quarter was last year’s $88.3 B….
Ouch, Victor!
In either the current quarter or next quarter on Apple’s calendar do we have an extra week either in the YOY compare or in the next Qtr that might impact Rev guidance?
Date: 12/21/2018 (8:00 AM PDT)
AMZN
Price $1,377.45
Mkt cap $673.53 B
Share count (673,000,000,000/1,377=)0.489 B
Revenue (4 qtr) (56.58+52.89+51.04+60.45=) 220.96
Net Inc (4 qtr) (2.88+2.53+1.63+1.86=) 8.9 B
EPS (8.9/0.489=) $18.2/share
RPS (220.96/0.489=) $451.86/share
P/EPS (1,377/18.2=) 75.7
P/RPS (1,377/451.86=) 3.05
MSFT
Price $98.23
Mkt cap $754.16 B
Share count (754,160,000,000/98.23=) 7.68 B
Revenue (4 qtr) (28.92+26.82+30.09+29.08=) $114.91 B
Net Inc (4 qtr) (8.82+8.73+7.42-6.3=) $18.7 B
EPS (18.7/7.68=) $2.43/share
RPS (114.91/7.68=) $14.96/share
P/EPS (98.23/2.43=) 40.42
P/RPS (98.23/14.96=) 6.57
AAPL
Price $150.73
Rev 265.60 B
Net Inc 59.53 B
Shares 4.745 B
Mkt cap (150.73×4,745,000,000=) $715.2 B
EPS (59.53/4.75=) $12.55
RPS (265.6/4.75=) $55.97
P/EPS (150.73/12.55=) 12.0
P/RPS (150.73/55.97=) 2.69
Relative AMZN/AAPL P/EPS:
(75.7/12=) 6.3X
Relative AMZN/AAPL P/RPS:
(3.05/2.69=) 1.13X
Relative AMZN/MSFT P/EPS:
(75.7/40.42=) 1.87X
Relative AMZN/MSFT P/RPS:
(3.05/6.57=) 0.46X
Relative MSFT/AAPL P/EPS:
(40.42/12=) 3.37X
Relative MSFT/AAPL P/RPS:
(6.57/2.69=) 2.44X
One caveat: Next quarter, the negative quarter for MSFT will be consigned to the history books. That will push their EPS up substantially and bring their P/EPS down just as substantially. IMHO, this is why MSFT is enjoying the very high P/EPS (and price) it is now. Investors are looking past the bad quarter and compensating for the high P/EPS with a higher price than warranted by MSFT’s very low EPS number. If I had to guess, I’d say that this quarter’s net income for MSFT will be around 9 B. That would give it a yoy EPS of (8.82+8.73+7.42+9=) ~$34 B. At the present share price and stock count, that would give MSFT a P/E of (98.23/(34/7.68)=) ~22.
Assuming Apple carves another 200 M shares off it’s float and the net income is unchanged from last year, that would give it a yoy “real” EPS of ((59.53/4.55=) ~$13.08/share. Assuming it’s present price, the P/EPS would drop to (150.73/13.08=) 11.5.
So after earnings next quarter and assuming the prices of these three companies remains comparatively the same, AAPL would be “rewarded” with about half the valuation of MSFT, and between a sixth and a seventh the valuation of AMZN.
Keep buying that cheap AAPL, Apple!
Extra weeks occur in Apple’s 1st quarter every 6-7 years depending on leap years. The next odd quarter is not due till 2022 I believe. The last one was fiscal q1 21017 (q4 of 2016 on the calendar) and YoY comparisons were made to it last year (calendar q4 2017).
@Victor, After listening to Neil Cybert’s latest podcast, I’m starting to agree with you. I need to take the emotion out and look at not just the fundamentals of Apple, but also that of the goofy, damn Market. 😛