And at what average selling price (ASP)?
The unit sales estimates of the 18 analysts I’ve heard from so far—9 Wall Street pros and 9 independents—range from 46 million to 49.6 million, with an average of 47.9 million. Average selling prices (ASPs) range from $709 to $800, with an average estimated ASP of $746.
In other words, unit sales up single digits (2.7%), ASPs up more than 20%.
To put those numbers in context, check out the interactive charts below. Click on the second column to see the year-over-year growth (or shrinkage). Not seeing the first chart? Click here.
Not seeing the second chart? Click here.
Below: The individual analysts estimates, pros in blue, indies in green.
Click to enlarge.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings next Thursday, Nov. 1, about 30 minutes after the closing bell.
Apple introduced six new iPhone models, all of which were available in the September quarter, with a price range from $999 to $1,499. September quarter 2017 had an ASP for that quarter of $618, $391 to $881 lower than the price structure of the new models. Granted the new models were only available for nine of ninety-one days of the quarter, but the significantly higher pricing of these models would have an outsized impact on ASP, especially considering the demand for the most expensive iPhone Xs Max models.
If that wasn’t enough upward pressure now factor in the impact of iPhone 8s priced $50 higher than the equivalent iPhone 7s they replaced in the lineup, and the unavailability of the bottom end iPhone SE.
As PED says, we’ll find out soon enough, then watch December quarter’s iPhone ASP. I think it’s going to jump to $960.
Sorry if that seems like I’m being a downer. If it’s any consolation, I’m notoriously bad at these kind of guessing games. And I’d be delighted to be proven wrong.
Maybe we’ll have a repeat of fy ’15….
Apple entered the September quarter at the low-end of the targeted iPhone channel supply range while having reduced channel supply in the June quarter by 3.5 million units. In other words, demand remained strong as Apple exited the June quarter with ample capacity in the channel to ship new handsets before the end of the September quarter.
Last year the iPhone X didn’t ship until early November. The initial shipments of the iPhone XS handsets occurred before the September quarter came to a close on September 29th.
This is why my iPhone unit sales estimate is among the highest estimates in this survey.
She tells me that the iPhone Xs Max 256 GB is the best selling iPhone and, in a surprise for me, the Gold Stainless Steel Apple Watch w/Milanese loop is the best selling Apple Watch.
While I was waiting for the session to start I overheard a rep tell a customer waffling between iMacs that if the customer wasn’t in a hurry he should consider waiting until next week.
I asked my manager friend if they had been trained on any new products lately. She says training won’t occur until day of announcement and in the meantime nobody knows what is going to be announced.
I’m told activity in the store is higher this month than it was last October. It was certainly busy while I was there.