Munster: Apple is safest haven in tech stock tumble (video)

Venture capitalist anticipates another 5% “stepdown” in Netflix, Amazon, Facebook and other large cap tech stocks with dangerously high multiples.

From an interview with Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster on CNBC’s Squawk Box Thursday morning:

“I’m still bullish on the sector more broadly for other reasons,” Munster said. “But the near term psychology has a way of playing itself out in historical patterns.” 

Brace yourself for another step down in large-cap tech, says Gene Munster from CNBC.

My take: Predictions are dangerous. As of 10 a.m. Thursday, Amazon was down and the rest were recovering from Wednesday’s rout.

UPDATE: More blood on the floor. Here’s how the big cap tech stocks looked just before the closing bell. Only Facebook and Google ended the day in the green.

5 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:

    Agree” Predictions are dangerous, Apple is a safe haven.

    Since Apple cannot buy back share for a few more weeks, this may present excellent option trade opportunities.

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    October 11, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      AAPL’s multiple is not “dangerously” high, certainly not on a level as is Netflix, Amazon, and Facebook.

      Pulled the trigger this AM. Bought 440 Nov 9 $225/$227.50 Call Spreads at 88¢. Yield (provided AAPL Closes above $227.50 on Nov 9) is 177% on a 4-week trade.

      The low of Historical Trend range for Nov 9 indicates AAPL will trade at $227. The range high is $238 with a Mean of $233. These are intraday low numbers.

      If I had drug my lazy ass out of bed 3 hours earlier I could have got them for much less.

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      October 11, 2018
      • Gregg Thurman said:

        In addition to the above, I also set in motion a trading strategy (in my Roth) that will give me 100 shares of AAPL “for Free” on January Expiry.

        Bought 1 January $230 Call at $7.28
        Bought 20 January Expiry $220/$240 Call Spreads at $7.33.

        Total investment (including fees) $15,379.97.

        Gross Revenue from the Call Spreads ($40,000) pays for the 100 Shares and returns all monies invested (plus $1,612 “profit”), ergo, Shares are “free” (provided AAPL Closes above $240 on January expiry.

        This is a strategy I will repeat (increasing shares acquired as cash reserves increase) each quarter.

        1
        October 11, 2018
  2. T R said:

    Do we know for sure Apple can’t – or doesn’t – buy during this quiet period? It seemed the ASR program had allowed this in the past (if brokers settled with Apple outside of period, and sold sometime later in the period). Did someone here get the clarification from Investor Relations? Or did you see the sales in the 10-Q and saw a pattern that indicated that Apple doesn’t buy back directly during the quiet period. Thanks in advance.

    Google search: Apple FORM 10-Q pursuant to Rule 10b5-1(c)

    Share repurchase program: …Under this program, shares may be repurchased in privately negotiated and/or open market transactions, including under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).

    An equity trading plan is a written document that pre-establishes the amounts, prices and dates (or formula for determining the amounts, prices and dates) of future purchases or sales of the Company’s stock,

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    October 11, 2018
  3. T R said:

    Or did you see the buybacks in the 10-Q …?

    0
    October 11, 2018

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