Analyst: Apple will ship 10 million new iPhones by end of quarter

From a note to clients by Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang that landed on my desktop Monday:

We believe combined iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be about 10 million in the first three days. This is based on current wait times in most regions (1-2 weeks) and our estimated weekly production volumes from OEMs. We believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be weaker compared to the iPhone X preorders, which we had estimated last year to be about 12 million in the first three days, with lead times of 3-5 weeks.

Based on our research, we believe Apple will produce a combined 35-36 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units in calendar third and fourth quarter. This is below what we believe Apple had produced for the iPhone X in 3Q17 and 4Q17 (36 million). Our channel checks suggest a total of ~10 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units will be shipped by the end of September, while a total of ~15 million units will be produced by the end of September…

Although it is too early to tell iPhone XR sales, we believe iPhone XR sales will be higher than iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales at JD.Com. We will be comparing iPhone XR sales to sales of the iPhone 8 and 8+. Our current expectations for iPhone XR production are for about 60 million units to be produced, which is above iPhone 8 and 8+ production of 44-45 million units, and 50 million units to be shipped in the second half of 2018.

My take: More support for the theory that the people’s choice this fall will by the iPhone Xr.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this item misspelled Jun Zhang’s name. I have no excuse.

6 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    Ten million new iPhones is what Apple ships every year during the September quarter. Nothing new in that observation.

    Doing the arithmetic on Yhang’s numbers I get 75 Million iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max and iPhone XR sold in the December quarter.

    Average unit sales for the last 4 years has been 76.2 Million units. It would appear that Yhang is not forecasting any volume for iPhone 8/8 Plus and iPhone 7/7 Plus units.

    A modicum of iPhone 8 and iPhone 7 unit sales of 10 Million (12% of total units sold) during the December quarter results in 85 Million iPhones sold. [Historically older model iPhones account for 20% to 30% of total December quarter unit sales.]

    My December quarter total iPhone unit sales estimate is 86.640 Million units (YoY unit growth 12%).

    While we’re on the subject there is something else we should be considering.

    During FY2017 Apple offered a total of 13 iPhone models ranging in price from $349 to $869. ASP for that year was $652.

    During FY2018 Apple offered a total of 15 iPhone models ranging in price from $349 to $1.149. ASP for that year (estimated) was $756.

    For FY2019 Apple will be offering 17 iPhone models ranging in price from $449 to $1,499. Estimated ASP will be ~$900.

    Without offering any more new models, by FY2021 Apple will be offering 27 total iPhone models ranging in price from $549 to $1,499. Estimated ASP will be ~$1,099.

    That last ASP looks pretty incredible until you consider what the Motorola Brick sold for in the late 1980s. If memory serves me well I paid $700 for it (no plan). Factor in 2% annual inflation and that Motorola Brick sold for the equivalent of $1,320 in today’s dollars and didn’t do anything.

    Apple isn’t pushing the limits of affordability, it is pricing the iPhone for about the same as the Motorola Brick and providing one hell of a lot more utility, at a cost of about $1.50 per day (ASP amortized over two years).

    1
    September 17, 2018
  2. Ken Cheng said:
    Just an FYI, there’s no Yhang in the Chinese language, but Zhang is fairly common.

    0
    September 17, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Thanks Ken. I was copying PED’s spelling.

      0
      September 17, 2018
      • Ken Cheng said:
        No prob, actually, the FYI was for PED.

        0
        September 17, 2018

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