From a note to clients by Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang that landed on my desktop Monday:
We believe combined iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be about 10 million in the first three days. This is based on current wait times in most regions (1-2 weeks) and our estimated weekly production volumes from OEMs. We believe iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max preorders to be weaker compared to the iPhone X preorders, which we had estimated last year to be about 12 million in the first three days, with lead times of 3-5 weeks.
Based on our research, we believe Apple will produce a combined 35-36 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units in calendar third and fourth quarter. This is below what we believe Apple had produced for the iPhone X in 3Q17 and 4Q17 (36 million). Our channel checks suggest a total of ~10 million iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max units will be shipped by the end of September, while a total of ~15 million units will be produced by the end of September…
Although it is too early to tell iPhone XR sales, we believe iPhone XR sales will be higher than iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max sales at JD.Com. We will be comparing iPhone XR sales to sales of the iPhone 8 and 8+. Our current expectations for iPhone XR production are for about 60 million units to be produced, which is above iPhone 8 and 8+ production of 44-45 million units, and 50 million units to be shipped in the second half of 2018.
My take: More support for the theory that the people’s choice this fall will by the iPhone Xr.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this item misspelled Jun Zhang’s name. I have no excuse.