Which way will Apple go?

It’s the rare special event that sends Apple’s share price up the next day.

According to the chart posted last week by Merrill Lynch. Apple’s share price rose after only 3 of the last 12 launch events. Things usually turn around within sixty days (see circles).launch event shares higher

Click to enlarge.

My take: Buy the rumor, sell the news. Or better still, buy and hold.

 

6 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    AAPL has been trading screwy (in relation to historic trends) since July earnings.

    Be that as it may, the Historic Trend indicates that AAPL’s intraday low will drift from today’s $220.27 downward to about $216 over the next 5 trading sessions.

    Truth in lending, my OCT $230-$235 Call Spreads are not looking so good at the moment. I will be adding to my position with OCT $220-$225 Cal Spreads sufficient to break even on the trades. Right now they are priced at $2.40 (tempting). But if AAPL trades in line with the trend they will get cheaper over the next week. I will be nibbling along the way, averaging down.

    0
    September 12, 2018
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Fun to speculate mentally, but not fiscally.

    Historical data may be a poor predictor for two reasons. 1) Tax law changes and Luca’s statements means there’s about $350B on buybacks coming in the next five years. That cash impacts the buy/sell dynamics that did not apply over the prior five years. 2) New iPhone sales as a percentage of revenue is slightly declining because other lines show strong growth. Analysts and investors, or at least some, finally understand this.

    Nothing new or insightful about the above. More important is that the stock price and dividends are likely to double in about five years.

    1
    September 12, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      1) Tax law changes and Luca’s statements means there’s about $350B on buybacks coming in the next five years. That cash impacts the buy/sell dynamics that did not apply over the prior five years.

      Good point. But I think these influences that may be affecting AAPL’s trading patterns are transitory. Next year they will be the norm, not the exception.

      More important is that the stock price and dividends are likely to double in about five years.

      I don’t see this as an issue as AAPL has increased in value 238% in the last 5 years and 322% during the trend period.

      0
      September 12, 2018
  3. Larry Fritzlan said:
    Read somewhere, AAPL stock doubles, on average, every 22months.
    1998: From 1 to 2: Six years
    2004: From 2 to 4: Six months
    2004: From 4 to 8: 12 months
    2005: From 8 to 16: 42 months
    2009: From 16 to 32: 12 months
    2010: From 32 to 64: 41 months
    2013: From 62 to 128: 20 months
    Estimate/Guess 128 to 256: 2018-19?
    (Average, double every 22 months)

    0
    September 12, 2018
  4. Kathy Corby said:
    Watching the intro. Real time ECG and fall detection mean every doctor over the age of 50 is about to order the Apple Watch with cellular. For themselves, and for their senior parents. Fall detection!!! Any idea how many deaths are caused every year by falls? “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up” is a real thing, I promise!!!! First time I ever thought that the watch was going to be the game changer in an intro. (PS –retired ER)

    1
    September 12, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Kathy, I’m thinking about Medi-Care or insurance provided/subsidized Apple Watches. Does FDA certification have any impact on that happening?

      0
      September 12, 2018

Leave a Reply