But, he adds, Apple’s original video content is further along than you think.
At first glance, it appears Netflix’s lead in original content is insurmountable. Netflix will end 2018 with close to 1,000 original titles and spend an estimated $3.5 billion on new titles this year. Keep in mind that almost half of that content is outside of the U.S. That compares to Apple, which has 2 titles out today and another 16 in the works (to be released in 2019 at the earliest), expecting to spend about $900 million this year. However, history is on Apple’s side, given that just five years ago Netflix had 13 original titles including the debut season of House of Cards. In other words, with the right resources, which Apple has, Apple’s original content titles can ramp from just under two dozen to potentially over one hundred, We note that Apple has stated they are focused on quality vs. quantity…
It’s no secret that original content will be an emerging area of investment for Apple in order to boost the increasingly important Services revenue line. The good news is that cord cutting is undeniable and consumers are now paying for multiple monthly streaming services. Multiple streaming services means there will be a handful of content provider winners. We think that over the next 5 years Apple will ramp its original content investment from an estimated $900m this year to an estimated $4.2B in 2022.
Below: Apple’s content pipeline, according to Munster.
- Amazing Stories – Apple plans to spend ~$5M per episode on a 10 part sci-fi/horror series originally created by Steven Spielberg in 1985. Source
- Are you Sleeping – A thriller drama series based on true crime novel by Kathleen Barber. Source
- Central Park – Comedy that tells the story of how a family of caretakers living in Central Park ends up saving the park & the world. Source
- Dickenson – Documentary about the early life of poet Emily Dickenson starring Hailee Steinfeld. Source
- Home – Will offer viewers a “never-before-seen look inside the world’s most extraordinary homes” and the minds of the people who created them. Source
- See – Straight-to-series epic world-building drama set in the future. Source
- Untitled Damien Chazelle Project – Details of the series’ plot are under wraps. This project will be the first time Chazelle has written and directed every episode of a series. Source
- Untitled Kristen Wiig Project – Comedy series produced by Reese Witherspoon, inspired by Curtis Sittenfeld’s upcoming short story collection “You Think It, I’ll Say It.” Source
- Untitled M. Night Shyamalan Project – Straight-to-series psychological thriller. Source
- Untitled Morning Show – Morning show drama starring Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon. Source
- Untitled Ronald D. Moore Project – Ronald D. Moore, developer of Battlestar Galactica explores what would have happened if the global space race had never ended. Source
- Swagger – Profile on the early life and career of NBA star Kevin Durant. Source
- Little America – Based on a series of true stories featured in Epic Magazine that paint a portrait of America’s immigrants. Source
- Foundation – Based on Isaac Asimov’s iconic science fiction novels published between 1942-1993. Source
- Shantaram – Drama series based on “Shantaram,” a 2003 novel about a man who escaped an Australian prison only to hide out in the slums of Bombay. Source
- Little Voices – Tells the story of finding authenticity in the crowded and diverse New York musical landscape. Source
My question: Will any of these projects ever see the light of day outside Apple’s walled garden?