Anything less, says Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster, would be a red flag, raising concerns about underlying demand.
From a note to subscriber that landed in my inbox Thursday:
Given well-documented production bottlenecks (screen and TrueDepth camera) we expect lead times for both capacities to reach 4-6 weeks by 8 am ET and remain largely unchanged in the days to follow. We expect lead times of 4-6 weeks for the month of November. We believe the iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium sometime in the March quarter, or 3-4 months after launch. Typically it takes 2-3 months for a new iPhone to reach global supply-demand equilibrium…
In general, if we see lead times of 4-6 weeks the morning of Oct. 27th as a sign that demand for the iPhone X is trending more favorable than investor expectations. If by Sunday, the 29th lead times are below two weeks we’d be concerned about underlying demand.
The table below outlines iPhone lead times two days after pre-orders began.
The takeaway is the average lead time over the previous three cycles was just over two weeks (15.6 days to be exact). In other words, we expect the lead time to be an order of magnitude greater for the iPhone X.
My take: Munster has been counting heads and watching lead times for years. This is his wheelhouse.
UPDATE: Sold out in 20 minutes. See here.