When Apple redesigned the iPhone in 2010 and 2014, shares grew an average of 140%.
From a note to clients by Katy Huberty that landed in my inbox Thursday evening:
The last two periods of meaningful iPhone growth acceleration (iPhone 4 in 2010-11 and iPhone 6 in 2014-15) produced elongated periods of AAPL share outperformance and drove an average share price return of 140% over the two cycles. (See chart) With shares up 51% into the iPhone 8 cycle, we see significant room for the stock to run.
Additionally, we see a favorable set up in the stock with institutional ownership of Apple exiting the June quarter 30bps below the historical average of 2.7% and ~200bps below peak ownership of 4.4% (in 3Q12). What’s more, our recent conversations suggest investor sentiment remains muted as some expect a less robust cycle given higher ASPs.
While the historical average stock performance during the day of a new iPhone launched is flat, we would take advantage of any softness as the average price return 6 months after the event is 14%, and 28% for the last two major form factor changes.
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Huberty maintains her Overweight rating and $182 price target.
My take: Apparently the less said the better about the winter of 2012.