Handicapping Apple’s earnings, fiscal Q1 2017

Anticipating revenues at the high end of Apple’s guidance, investors have bid the stock up 8.2% in the past three months.

Apple will report earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2017 after closing bell Tuesday. What’s the consensus on the Street? Take your pick:

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Estimize.com‘s crowdsourced survey, with 575 participants as of this afternoon, offers the broadest perspective. Click the charts below to see the results in detail. Click here for updates (free for participants). Warning: After the current quarter, the size of Estimize’s crowd—and the statistical significance of its consensus—falls off rapidly.

Click to enlarge. Not seeing the graphics? Try the website. 

What happens to Apple’s share price in after-market trading Tuesday depends in large part on the guidance Apple offers for Q2 2017. I’ll be watching. Tune in here after the closing bell.


  1. George Providaked said:
    I remain very skeptical of facile explanations that history has shown to be very unreliable explaining Apple’s stock price increase.

    Aside from a rising stock market in general lifting all stocks etc., Apple’s fundamental soundness, financial success, and market presence remain very deeply under appreciated.

    January 28, 2017
    • Jonathan Mackenzie said:
      My theory is that a large, even massive, correction is coming (maybe not immediately but eventually), and all stocks are in for a buzzcut. Then, when stocks begin to recover from this event, fundamentals will once again win out. In this scenario, AAPL is not immune from decline but will be one of the better picks for the recovery.

      Either I am right or the current state of fantasy evaluations will last forever. I think this is not possible. I prefer to avoid momentum stocks and $60b market caps priced like start-ups. AAPL has been under appreciated for a long time, but sanity eventually will be restored and making money will one day be an important measure of a company’s prospects.

      January 28, 2017
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Although Apple’s share price has risen over the past few months it remains well below the all-time high. Additionally, management continues to repurchase shares as a component of the current $200 billion capital return program.

    As of Friday, the shares are trading at less than 15x trailing 12-month earnings and at an even lower multiple to free cash flow. Yet another dividend increase is widely expected to be announced in April and a much-anticipated “super cycle” for iPhone sales commences this fall. Apple is an attractive long-term, total return equity.

    In my view, the first six months of each fiscal year, due to new iPhone releases each fall, is a seamless seasonal cycle divided only by quarterly accounting periods. December quarter results must be viewed in the context of March quarter guidance and vice versa.

    The market’s response to December quarter results and March quarter guidance may not reflect the company’s prospects for long-term growth. The calendar moves relentlessly forward and every 91 days the Street gives its myopic verdict only to have the same deliberation 13 weeks later. Clarity comes only in time.

    January 29, 2017

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